Another Week of Unsettled Weather for New Jersey
Daily rain chances and below-normal temperatures will make for a consistently unsettled and somewhat wet first week of May for the Garden State.
When I use the word "unsettled" in a forecast, it refers to an extended period of scattered rain chances. With such conditions in place, it is difficult to make a specific prediction for a specific location at a given time. In general, my best advice for the workweek ahead is to keep an umbrella handy, and keep an ear/eye on the latest forecast as it continues to evolve.
We begin the first Monday of May with a few isolated showers, along with patchy drizzle and light fog. (The lowest visibility number I've seen so far has been 1 mile - that's noticeable, but not too thick.) I can't rule out additional showers or weak thunderstorms throughout the day, along with mostly cloudy to overcast skies. Most of the state will top out in the lower to mid 60s. Having said that, clouds will keep North Jersey cooler while a sea breeze will keep the Jersey Shore cooler (in the 50s).
The real hairy part of the day will come in the Monday late afternoon to evening hours. Temperatures are expected to spike this afternoon in the southwest corner of the state (potentially well into the 70s). That will help to fuel some convection, thus forming a batch of strong to severe thunderstorms. Gusty winds, hail, and pockets of heavy rain will be possible. The Storm Prediction Center has posted a 2% tornado risk too, just barely clipping the area around Salem County, N.J.
The threat for fierce storms will diminish after sunset Monday, transitioning to a period of steady rain for at least part of the state through at least part of the overnight hours.
By Tuesday morning, rain will taper off. We'll hopefully see a little bit of clearing through the day on Tuesday. But temperatures will stay just below normal for early May, in the lower to mid 60s.
Clouds will stick around for Wednesday, with consistent high temperatures again in the lower to mid 60s. As another weak impulse rides over the Garden State late in the day, another chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms will present itself.
Thursday will also bring a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
Friday will also bring a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
Notice a pattern? Yeah. Again: it's an unsettled week.
By Saturday, we'll start to warm up. I could see 70s returning to thermometers by Sunday.