Autumn Temperatures and Some Rain This Week for New Jersey
High temperatures will hover around seasonable levels every day this week, as a chance for beneficial rain enters the forecast as well.
Here are your weather headlines for Monday, November 9, 2015...
On Friday afternoon, high temperatures across New Jersey were as warm as 77 degrees... This morning, low temperatures were as low as 22 degrees... What a difference! Of course, dramatic temperature swings like this are common during an N.J. autumn, and we have now settled into a more "seasonable" pattern. That means daily high temperatures will be right around seasonal normals (upper 50s) for the next week or so.
Forecast highs for Monday range between 55° in North Jersey to 60° in South Jersey. Again, this is close to average for early-to-mid November, and overall very similar to Sunday. While the day will begin mostly sunny, clouds will slowly increase, especially this afternoon. Those clouds are a signal of an upcoming rain chance...
Rain Moves In
A storm system will slide up the Atlantic coast and bring New Jersey a shot at some much-needed solid rainfall.
The first round of showers is expected to push into the far southern tip of the state by late afternoon (after about 3 p.m.) Scattered showers will continue spreading northward through about Midnight tonight. Overnight rainfall should be light, but it could very well lead to some wet roads for the Tuesday morning commute.
Tuesday looks like a potentially wet day, but rainfall intensity and timing will depend on the exact track of this system, and therefore they are somewhat up in the air. There are two possible model outcomes for this rain event:
- The GFS and Euro models keep the heaviest bands of rain just off the Jersey Shore, actually leading to a mostly dry Tuesday for New Jersey. With this solution, rainfall totals would be on the order of a quarter-inch to maybe a half-inch.
- Meanwhile, I don't want to completely rule out the NAM solution, which puts the storm further north and west. That would generate some steady to heavy rain over New Jersey from late morning to early afternoon on Tuesday. In this case, I wouldn't be surprised to see widespread 1+ inch rainfall totals... but only if this forecast track verifies.
Quite a divergence in possibilities, which is fairly uncomfortable with less than 24 hours to go before first raindrops. I think it's safe to say that some rain will fall across all of the Garden State on Tuesday, with the potential for pockets of steadier or heavier rain. Wind gusts to 25 mph will be possible as well. With high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, you'll likely need to keep your umbrella and jacket handy all day.
Showers may linger into early Wednesday morning. Skies should clear significantly after 8 a.m. Wednesday, with peeks of sun and highs around 60 degrees by Wednesday afternoon.
Late Week Issues
Another frontal complex will bring more changes to our weather through the second half of the week, in the form of more showers and cooler temperatures.
That front is currently forecast to push through New Jersey from northwest to southeast on Thursday afternoon and evening. Along with the front will come a quick shot of showers (maybe even a thunderstorm). Rainfall totals should stay unimpressive.
High temperatures should still reach the lower 60s before the front passes. And even behind the front on Friday, thermometers will still reach the upper 50s or so.
A reinforcing cold front will pass through New Jersey on Saturday, delivering a cooler air mass and a chance for an isolated shower (maybe even a flurry?) High temperatures for the upcoming weekend will likely be stuck in the chilly lower to mid 50s.
One more item that we are watching is Tropical Depression 12 which, as of this writing, is spinning over the Bahamas. It is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Kate later today. The vast majority of forecast models take the storm out to sea, but it's still worth watching to make sure there won't be any impacts on the U.S. East Coast. The Atlantic Hurricane season officially ends November 30.