Cooler Temperatures and Clouds This Week for N.J.
As the first day of Autumn approaches, temperatures will become much more seasonable early this week, under clouds and scattered shower chances.
Here are your weather headlines for Monday, September 21, 2015...
Cooler Air Arrives
While we managed to squeak out a gorgeous, mostly dry weekend, changes are ahead, as we prepare to wrap-up Summer and begin Autumn on Wednesday.
Cooler air will settle over New Jersey today, and so this is likely to be our coolest day since June. Statewide high temperatures are forecast to be in the 70° to 75° range, as the weather should remain dry during the daytime hours today. Clouds will increase this morning, and we will maintain a brisk wind up to about 20 mph.
The brisk wind, out of the east-northeast, will also present a high risk for rip currents and rough surf along the Jersey Shore today. Waves are forecast to be in the 4 to 6 foot range. If you are headed to the beach today (despite the mediocre weather), it is exceptionally important to exercise caution and common sense. Since lifeguards are no longer on-duty at most (if not all) New Jersey beaches, pay close attention to posted flags and signs... or just stay out of the water today.
A Few Showers
A weak impulse will ride near New Jersey starting this evening through Tuesday morning. The NAM shows widespread showers across the entire state, while the GFS stays dry. We will introduce a slight chance for showers to the forecast tonight, especially along the southern and western edges of the state. If it does rain, it will be on the light side.
The Rest of the Week
As the rain clears on Tuesday morning at the latest, we will be left with clouds and similar temperatures to Monday, in the lower to mid 70s. The "winner of the week" looks to be Wednesday, as skies clear away to sunshine and temperatures respond by increasing to the upper 70s to perhaps 80 degrees. Thursday looks good too.
The forecast becomes a bit more muddled, however, as next weekend approaches. A storm system sitting along the mid-Atlantic coast may, according to the GFS, unhinge and bring showers to the southern half of New Jersey from late Friday through the day Saturday. The Euro model, however, paints a dry picture for the Friday-Saturday forecast. Therefore, until we have better model agreement, it is difficult to make a definitive forecast for the late part of the week.
This weekend's forecast is particularly important, given the Pope's visit to Philadelphia on Saturday and Sunday. I expect we'll have much better resolution on a wet vs. dry forecast in the coming days.