Early Clouds Give Way to Weekend Sun and Warmth Across NJ
Welcome to the first weekend of Summer 2016 - our weather forecast looks warm, humid, sunny, and downright pleasant.
New Jersey is beginning this Friday morning with patchy fog and a few spot showers and thunderstorms in South Jersey. But I'm happy to say that improving conditions will lead to some wonderful weather just in time for the last weekend of June.
The front that spawned Thursday's rain pushed just south of New Jersey before "washing out". In other words, the air mass difference from one side of the front to the other has become almost negligible. The boundary is still there, however, so weak storm systems are apt to provide occasional spot showers on Friday. Most of that rain will stay well south of the Garden State. But this is the reason for including isolated showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
For the most part, skies will clear to sunshine through Friday afternoon with warm temperatures in the lower 80s. A light breeze coming off the relatively cooler ocean will keep coastal communities relatively cooler too, generally in the 70s.
We'll hold onto a few clouds overhead for Friday night through early Saturday morning. However, as the sinking air of high pressure takes over this weekend, skies will quickly clear to near-perfect sunshine by late Saturday morning.
There is one model - the NAM - that paints a stubbornly wet and cloudy forecast for New Jersey's south coast on Saturday. There's just no justification for such a forecast - I just don't buy it. So we'll keep sunny skies, dry weather, and warm temperatures in the forecast through the weekend. Highs on Saturday will top out in the lower 80s for most of New Jersey, with 70s again at the beach.
Speaking of the beach, ocean temperatures currently average in the upper 60s along the Jersey Shore. That's pretty typical for late June. The UV Index will be in the very high category this weekend, so don't forget the sunscreen. Ocean waves will only break around 3 feet, but there is a Moderate risk for rip currents. Be safe, be smart, and have fun at the beach this weekend!
Subtle changes are expected in the atmosphere for Sunday, as some fair-weather clouds build in. Temperatures are also expected to warm a couple of degrees to the lower to mid 80s. It might feel a little humid and muggy, but we will close out the weekend with dry weather.
Even Monday looks good during the daytime hours, with a mix of sun and clouds and most highs again in the 80s.
Our next storm system will be a cold front, arriving between Monday night and Tuesday. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, some of which could feature heavy rain and gusty winds. A quick exit should lead to a return to fair, sunny weather through midweek.