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For the 9th Weekend in a Row, Rain is in the Forecast for NJ

Since Memorial Day Weekend, all but one weekend has brought at least some rain to at least some part of the Garden State.

That statistic proves just how soggy this summer has been. Rain, rain, and more rain — and almost always on the weekend!

There is good and bad news to report in this weekend’s forecast. While we do have some raindrops to talk about, the weekend will not be a total washout.

Another Unsettled Weekend 20170811

Friday: OK

After a couple of beautiful days, our weather will take a step downhill on Friday. Skies will become mostly cloudy Friday afternoon. Over the past few days, forecast models have wavered between shower and no-shower — I’m leaning toward a mostly rain-free forecast for Friday. There could be an isolated shower in NW NJ, but most of the state will remain dry through at least late afternoon.

High temperatures should reach the upper 70s (coast) to lower 80s (inland).

Showers and thunderstorms will arrive Friday night through early Saturday morning.

Saturday: Wet

As a front approaches New Jersey, it looks like we’ll have two rounds of rain through the first half of the weekend: scattered showers from late Friday night through early Saturday morning, followed by steadier rain Saturday afternoon-evening. Bottom line… Everyone in New Jersey is probably going to get wet on Saturday.

Now, keep in mind, periodic rain means there will be some breaks in the rainfall action. In addition, the rain doesn’t look too torrential, with forecast totals generally around one inch. Of course, our ground is still quite saturated, and any rain totals above an inch would be potentially cause flooding issues.

There’s poor consensus amongst the forecast models with regard to Saturday’s temperatures. The GFS seems to be running absurdly hot, while the past few rounds of the NAM have been wetter (and therefore cooler). A high of 80 degrees (give or take) seems reasonable. It will be humid on Saturday, but not oppressively so.

By late Saturday evening, the passage of our cold will cause rain chances to substantially end and skies to clear (after about 11 p.m.)

Sunday: Drier

While I always suspected Saturday would be the wetter day of the weekend, Sunday has always been a big question mark. Well, turn that question mark into an exclamation point, as the forecast is looking pretty good.

I wouldn’t rule out an isolated shower on Sunday, even though models are in good agreement of a dry day to end the weekend. Skies will average partly sunny, as we enjoy seasonably warm temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. (That’s about 5 degrees cooler than previous forecasts.) Humidity levels will fall as the day goes on.

Again, if the dry forecast does indeed play out, Sunday has the potential to be a great summer day!

Monday and Beyond: Pleasant

With a couple of high pressure domes headed for New Jersey, most of next week should be quiet and pleasant. A close call with a coastal system on Tuesday will cause increased cloud cover and humidity, and maybe a shower chance along the south coast.

Otherwise, barring any forecast changes, sunshine will win the sky next week with seasonable summertime high temperatures in the mid 80s. Sweet!

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