Increasing Sunshine and Cool Temperatures for NJ Thursday
And we're still keeping a close eye on another rainy, windy mess this weekend.
Thursday will be cool, but pleasant. Friday will be seasonable and pleasant. Saturday will be mild and pleasant. Sunday? Not pleasant at all.
We begin the day right on the edge of a bank of clouds. This blanket of persistent cloud cover has prevented thermometers in eastern New Jersey from falling too far overnight. Thursday morning's temperature map ranges from the mid 40s to the lower 50s.
Decreasing clouds will give way to increasing sunshine by Thursday afternoon. Having said that, as this past Tuesday's storm system slowly rotates toward the northeast, I have to include the slight chance for a rain shower in the forecast. Models suggest the best chance for raindrops will be around the early afternoon hours.
High temperatures on Thursday are expected to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. That's just a hair below normal highs for late October. Jacket weather all day, perhaps?
By sunset Thursday, we'll have clear skies, dry air, and light winds firmly in place. That's the perfect recipe for a chilly night. Overnight lows will mostly dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Patchy frost will be possible, but only in areas that already frosted this season. It might end up being a little warmer in urban areas and along the coast.
Friday's forecast looks terrific, featuring nothing but sunshine and blue skies. High temperatures should climb into the seasonable lower 60s.
Saturday promises to be an even nicer day, as high temperature make a run for 70 degrees. Most of the day will be mostly sunny, although I do expect clouds and wind speeds to increase by Saturday evening.
And that brings us to Sunday, which promises to be a not nice day. An approaching low pressure system will drag a cold front toward New Jersey. At the same time, a tropical disturbance currently over the western Caribbean Sea will slide along the East Coast. This combination will probably produce an extended period of potentially heavy rain, with rainfall totals of 3+ inches possible. Winds could become quite gusty as well, perhaps as high as 50 mph. While this morning's model run backed away slightly from these worst-case scenario numbers, the solutions are coming to a consensus forecast that reads like a total washout to me. (The heaviest stuff would happen in the morning, and then in the late evening hours.) So yes, it's becoming increasingly likely that Sunday's weather will be nasty all day long.
Beyond the rain and wind, we'll see clearing skies and another dose of chilly air on Monday. Your Halloween (Tuesday) forecast looks quiet and sunny, although definitely on the cool side with highs only in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.