Mild Start to Monday as Rain Creeps Closer to NJ
A slow-moving front will introduce clouds and rain to the forecast for the Garden State as high temperatures hover in the 80s for most of the week.
Here are your weather headlines for Monday, June 27, 2016...
Pleasant Weekend Weather Continues... For Now
New Jersey is coming off another beautiful weekend, as high temperatures peaked in the 80s for both Saturday and Sunday amidst dry, sunny skies. While your Monday morning features a continuation of the pleasant, mild weather, there are changes ahead. And those changes could start impacting us Monday afternoon.
Morning lows have dipped into the 50s for most of the Garden State. That's certainly comfortable, and actually a little bit below normal for late June. (Normal lows are 67 at Newark, 64 at Trenton, and 65 at Atlantic City.) As the sun rises, we'll enjoy partly sunny skies and highs once again bumping into the 80s for most of the state. Far North Jersey and the Jersey Shore may ultimately get stuck in the 70s. But overall it'll be a nice, seasonable start to the day.
As a slow-moving cold front approaches New Jersey, models show rain showers could creep into northern and western portions of the state starting around 2 p.m. Monday. Again, they're showers - nothing heavy or steady, and most of the Garden State should stay (mostly) dry during the daytime hours Monday. High temperatures will be at or just above normal, in the lower to mid 80s.
Period of Unsettled Weather
Monday night, showers will continue spreading southward and eastward across the state. Parts of the Jersey Shore and South Jersey may stay dry until Midnight. Meanwhile, the humidity will kick up a notch too, and we'll endure a muggy 70-degree low temperature for Tuesday morning.
Tuesday looks a bit wet and unsettled. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the daytime hours. Instability is there, but limited. Moisture is there, but not tropical. So there could be a few rumbles of thunder, and there could be a few pockets of steady to heavy rain. But it's not going to rain all day - "not a washout," as I say on-air so often. Rainfall totals should end up in the quarter-inch to inch range for most of NJ. (The northern 40% of New Jersey remains in Moderate Drought status, and could really use every drop of rain it can get.)
The combination of clouds and rain will keep temperatures at bay on Tuesday, with highs limited to the upper 70s to (maybe) lower 80s).
This front is going to crawl along very slowly, and so its effects will linger into Wednesday. The chance for showers and storms will continue for a bit, although I suspect any areas of rain Wednesday will be more isolated than on Tuesday.
Eventually, as the cooler and drier air behind the front arrives, skies will clear and humidity will drop. Hopefully that will happen by Wednesday afternoon.
Clearing Away... Holiday Weekend?
As high pressure takes control of New Jersey's weather once again, we'll return to pleasant early summer weather. Thursday in particular looks mostly sunny, dry, and warm with a light southwest wind. Highs make a return to the seasonable lower to mid 80s.
Beyond Thursday, the forecast is muddled and low confidence at this time. That's because of a cold front currently scheduled for Saturday. At the moment, this front looks mostly dry - but shower and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for sometime over the 4th of July Weekend.
I'm going to hold off on any degree of holiday weekend forecast specifics until we get more resolution. Hopefully that will happen Tuesday. Realistically that will happen Wednesday.