NJ Turns Sunnier Thursday and Friday, But Rain Looms Ahead
High pressure means the Garden State will enjoy a two-day stretch of pleasant weather before the forecast turns soggy again for the weekend.
Here are your weather headlines for Thursday, May 19, 2016...
As low pressure exits the mid-Atlantic coast, high pressure will be allowed to build in from the west. That will lead to New Jersey experiencing (brief) period of pleasant, mild weather through the end of the workweek.
Aside from a stray shower, especially in the morning hours, Thursday is looking decent. The skies of New Jersey will feature more sunshine than on Wednesday, helping temperatures bump into the lower 70s for most of the state. The exception, as usual, will be the Jersey Shore which will still end up in the pleasant 60s. Light winds and a mostly dry day will make for an overall pleasant mid-May day.
Friday looks even better! As skies become sunny by Friday morning, thermometers will soar into the mid 70s. Even though I expect clouds to fill in starting around late afternoon Friday, we'll enjoy dry weather and light winds. It will be a pretty perfect mid-May day.
But don't get used to the nice dry weather...
Sigh. Rain is good. Rain on the weekend during the warm months can be a travesty. And Saturday is looking quite soggy.
While there is some uncertainty surrounding Saturday's storm system, it looks like a wet day overall for at least part of New Jersey. The NAM forecast model paints a very rainy day, with pockets of steady to heavy rain for the entire state throughout the daytime hours. The GFS is drier for North Jersey, but keeps steady rain over southern and coastal areas all day. We'll hopefully get finer details on the location of heaviest rain and timing as this forecast continues to evolve. But for now, I'd plan on a potential washout for Saturday, especially in South Jersey and along the Jersey Shore. Skies will be grey, and highs will be cool only in the lower 60s for the rainiest locations.
Sunday will feature a bit of a recovery, as highs bounce back to around 70 degrees. While the first part of the day should bring a dry mix of clouds and sun, a round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected too.
A similar pattern will repeat for Monday and Tuesday, with highs near 70, partly sunny skies, and scattered showers and storms.
In yesterday's weather blog post, I posed the unsettling question of whether this round of unsettled, relatively cool weather will resolve itself by the Memorial Day Weekend.
I remain hopeful and optimistic, given this morning's model forecast. However, the models were notably terrible at predicting the end of the dreary stretch of weather in early May. So there's reason for hesitation in the forecast for Wednesday and beyond.
What I can tell you about the long-term forecast, as it stands now:
--We'll see daily rain chances, but not constant rain chances; yes, there will be breaks of sun.
--Temperatures won't be persistently cool, they'll reach near-normal each day.
--As soon as the wet weather clears the coast... Boom, 80 degrees.