On-and-Off Rain, Clouds, and Cooler Temps Thursday for NJ
Most of Friday will be unsettled too, but I'm loving the forecast for the weekend.
Here are your weather headlines for Thursday, July 6, 2017...
Hello! I'm back in the weather center after a lovely extended holiday weekend. And it's right back to forecasting pretty typical summertime weather for the Garden State, with some heat, some humidity, and some rain to talk about.
A stalled front just south of New Jersey will be the impetus for a period of unsettled weather, starting Thursday morning and extending through much of Friday too. Thursday's rainfall will be periodic — scattered, on-and-off, hit-or-miss, etc. And what does fall from the sky during the daytime hours looks to stay on the light side. Hopefully the rain doesn't mess up your day too much — thick clouds and cooler temperatures may very well be the more noticeable weather irk. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s along the coast, to upper 70s for most of the state, to (maybe) a few lower 80s to the south and west.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight. It will remain muggy, with lows in the upper 60s.
If we see a period of heavier rain, it's probably going to happen sometime during the Friday early morning hours. I don't want to pinpoint a bullseye too much, but downpours are most likely away from the coast, generally along the NJ Turnpike corridor. As for the timing, it's also a bit up in the air, with the NAM model projecting the heaviest rain between 5 p.m. Thursday and 5 a.m. Friday, while the GFS says it will come after 5 a.m. Friday. We'll see who wins — carry an umbrella, just in case.
Any and all rainfall should taper off by Friday afternoon, and then skies will start to clear. It should make for a relatively delightful Friday evening, with temperatures shooting back into the lower to mid 80s.
Weekend Looks Great
While I can't rule out an isolated shower on Saturday, the weekend forecast is really shaping up nicely. It's still going to be very humid on Saturday, leading to a warm, muggy morning and a summery, hot afternoon. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees for inland New Jersey. A stiff westerly breeze up to 20 mph will keep the warm air moving. I'm calling for partly sunny skies for Saturday for now, although it wouldn't surprise me at all if sunshine wins the day.
A no-rain front will reintroduce drier air to New Jersey by Sunday, and the difference in humidity should be obvious. Sunday will be slightly cooler too, with highs in the lower to mid 80s. With abundant sunshine, the second half of the weekend looks simply glorious.
It looks like a warming trend takes over for Monday into Tuesday. No heat wave, but a few 90s will become possible by midweek.
This time of year, we're always watching the tropics. And we have a fresh storm to talk about, Tropical Depression 4.
The storm is located about 2,800 southeast of New Jersey — that's a very long distance. There is still great uncertainty in the forecast track, with Caribbean Sea-Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic seaboard, and out-to-sea solutions all within the realm of possibilities. Worth watching, but not worth panicking.
I'm surprised to see the official National Hurricane Center track does not forecast T.D. 4 to strengthen to a tropical storm or a hurricane at this time. If it does, the next name on the list will be Don.