The big weather story of the week will be cool temperatures, although a midweek system could bring brief shot of rain and warmth.

Cool, Calm, and Collected

Welcome to the first full week of Spring! It doesn’t feel like it, unfortunately. At least there’s no snow in the forecast (for now).

High pressure will be in control for the first part of this week, keeping calm but cool air over New Jersey. Today’s weather will look nice out the window, with a pleasant mix of sun and fair-weather clouds. But as soon as you step outside, you might forget that it’s officially Spring now. Temperatures and wind chills this morning were in the Teens, and temperatures this afternoon will struggle to climb through the 30s.

But perhaps no news is good news. Even with another night with lows well into the 20s tonight, and highs tomorrow in the 40s... light winds and sunshine will make for a couple of decent weather days. If you wear a jacket, you’ll be just fine.

Warm and Wet Midweek

Our weather starts to change on Wednesday, as clouds increase and temperatures warm a bit to the upper 40s. I have to include a chance of afternoon and evening showers on Wednesday, but anything that falls will be liquid and light.

Thursday presents a forecasting challenge, as a storm system will bring at least some rain to New Jersey. The timing and intensity is a bit up in the air - model inconsistency makes me hesitant to really nail either down at this point. What does seem clear is a significant influx of warm air on Thursday... so highs will be in the 60s! It might be hard to enjoy though, with the chance of steady rain and maybe even a thunderstorm in the forecast too.

Following Thursday’s warm, wet weather, things will quiet down and cool down again heading into the last weekend of March.

The Long-Range Outlook

March is currently positioned to become the 3rd month in a row with below-normal average temperatures for New Jersey. Long-range forecast models show a couple more “bursts” of warmth through the end of March and the first few days of April, similar to the one I mentioned above for Thursday. But there’s just nothing sustainable that will keep us at or above normal for an extended period of time. Cool air will just continue to dominate the Northeast US for the time being.

Furthermore, the 6-10 Day, 8-14 Day, and 1 Month outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center also place New Jersey firmly in the “Below Normal” section. The 3 Month outlook shows an equal chance of Above Normal and Below Normal temperatures.

So keep thinking those summer thoughts - I don’t think it’s going to get “hot” anytime soon.