Quiet Weather Thursday in NJ, as Next Rain Chance Approaches
Temperatures across the Garden State will stay seasonable and comfortable through the upcoming weekend, with alternating dry and wet weather days.
Before I jump into Thursday's forecast, I need to address Wednesday's weather and an unfortunate partial bust of my forecast. While my prediction at New Jersey's major weather stations looked good, I was surprised to see temperatures spike to 90 degrees in SW NJ Wednesdasy afternoon - 10 degrees above forecast highs. As we exceeded our convective temperature, all the atmosphere needed was a little lift to produce an isolated shower/storm. And that's exactly what happened in Burlington County. So much for a dry day with plenty of sunshine, huh?
I understand the disappointment and anger of those whose plans were adversely affected by the isolated rain. Please know that I am the first to raise my hand and admit a mistake when my forecast is wrong. It happens, it's part of the job - meteorology is an inexact science. All I can do is promise to continue learning from my mistakes, and do everything I can to keep my forecast accuracy as high as possible.
Anyway, onward to your weather headlines for Thursday, June 2, 2016...
Thursday: Pretty Nice
New Jersey is now under the influence of an area high pressure parked over eastern Canada. High pressure generally means fair weather and pleasant temperatures, and Mother Nature will not disappoint Thursday. Skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy, but we should stay dry during the daytime hours. High temperatures will approach 80 degrees in the warmest spots, with mid to upper 70s for most of the Garden State. Along the coast, a subtle on-shore flow will keep temperatures a bit cooler, close to 70 degrees for Thursday afternoon.
Thursday Night and Friday: Showers
A weak warm front will start lifting through New Jersey around Thursday evening, potentially producing some showers through Thursday night. Overnight lows should remain comfortable, near 60 degrees.
Right on the hells of the warm front will come a cold front that will sweep through New Jersey starting around sunrise on Friday. As it does, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to push through the state. "Scattered" means that the rain will be "on and off" in any given location - it's not going to be a washout, and there might even be places in NJ that stay dry for most of the day.
However, the concern remains that some pockets of heavy rain will be possible on Friday. Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie is still spinning pitifully off the coast of the Carolinas. It's still a small, weak storm that will have no "direct" hit on New Jersey. But if we tap into some of Bonnie's tropical moisture on Friday, it could be enough to fuel a few localized tropical deluges.
Models show the heaviest rain will fall in the northern half of New Jersey around Friday early afternoon. That timing and location sounds reasonable to me, but don't hang your hat on it. Everyone in the Garden State would be wise to carry an umbrella or raincoat on Friday.
We're still looking at mixed weather news for the weekend. Saturday is still looking great with highs near 80, light winds, and mostly dry weather. (I just can't rule out an isolated shower at any given time). Saturday will be the better day of the weekend, by far.
That's because our next storm system is scheduled to arrive on Sunday, and the timing is less than ideal. Models currently show rain chances over New Jersey from late Saturday night (around 10 p.m.) through early Monday morning (around 5 a.m.) The heaviest, steadiest rain is currently expected to fall Sunday evening.
The early look at early next week still looks pleasant, with mostly sunny skies and pleasant high temperatures in the lower 80s.