Summer Ends With Cloudy, Breezy Weather for N.J.
Tuesday is the last full day of Summer 2015, and a repeat of Monday's cloudy and seasonably cool weather is expected.
Here are your weather headlines for Tuesday, September 22, 2015...
Clouds, Showers, Breeze, and Rough Surf
So far today, we have been tracking some light rain activity just east of New Jersey, in Pennsylvania. Some of these showers have popped over the border into Sussex and Warren counties, but it looks like most of the rainfall will stay away from the Garden State today. We are going to leave a shower or sprinkle chance in the forecast, just in case... but if you haven't seen rain yet, you probably won't through the rest of the day.
One thing everybody in New Jersey will see today will be some thick clouds. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will make the day feel dreary at times, and will contribute toward keeping temperatures at bay. Highs will only reach the lower to mid 70s - similar to Monday's numbers.
Additionally, we will experience a stiff breeze out of the northeast, especially along the coast where gusts over 20 mph will be possible today. That wind coming off the ocean will stir up the surf significantly, with 5 to 8 waves expected from Sandy Hook to Cape May. The National Weather Service has posted a high risk of rip currents today too. The angry ocean is likely to continue as the on-shore, northeasterly flow persists this week.
Pleasant and Dry Days
As high pressure shifts on Wednesday, we should see some improvements in the sky and some upward motion in temperatures. Worst-case scenario, we will enjoy a few breaks of sun. Best-case scenario, we will be able to call Wednesday a mostly sunny day. Either way, the warmth from the sun will push high temperatures to the 74° to 80° range for most of New Jersey on Wednesday and Thursday. A brisk breeze will still be likely, especially along the Jersey Shore.
Wet Weather by the Weekend?
A storm system is currently parked south of New Jersey, along the Carolina coast. The big questions for the end-of-the-week forecast are 1.) whether this system unhinges itself, and 2.) whether it will move northward along the coast far enough to impact New Jersey. There is still considerable disagreement amongst models regarding rain chances on Friday and Saturday. Therefore, this remains a low confidence forecast.
It is time, however, to mention a chance of rain in the forecast for South Jersey on Friday into Saturday. At this point, the GFS model limits any significant rain totals to Cape May and Atlantic counties. The heaviest rain is modeled to pass over the southern tip of New Jersey overnight Friday through early Saturday morning. Additionally, all rain for Friday and Saturday is shown to stay south of Interstate 195.
As this system slowly moves along the coast on Sunday and Monday, a brisk wind, overcast skies, and continued unsettled (wet) weather will be possible.
It is important to note that the Euro model shows a significantly drier forecast for the end of the week and the weekend. Therefore, it is unfortunately still too early to put a definitive timeline and potential rainfall totals on this weekend's rainfall. The chance is there - we'll update the exact wording over the next couple of days.