Sunny and Cool Tuesday for NJ, Then Sunny and Mild
New Jersey's next chance of rain won't arrive until early next week.
I think I finished writing this forecast in record-time. As a massive dome of high pressure settles over New Jersey, our weather will be quite boring. The next four days will be sunny and dry, and the weekend admittedly looks pleasant too. While Tuesday will be on the cool side, a slow warmup takes over for the rest of the week.
Tuesday morning's Frost Advisory was verified, as we did indeed experience the coolest morning of the season so far. (Our coolest temps since early May.) Most temperatures across the state have fallen into the upper 30s to lower 40s. The coldest temperature I've seen has been 26 degrees at Walpack, Sussex County. Brrrr!
So you'll need a jacket out the door Tuesday morning, and you'll probably want it again Tuesday afternoon. Despite solid sunshine and dry air, high temperatures will be limited to the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. That's about 5 degrees below normal for mid-October.
Tuesday night will be chilly, but not quite as cold as Monday night. While I think a few spots could fall into the 30s, the frost potential (Wednesday, and we'll begin a slow warmup through the rest of the week. Wednesday's high temperatures will jump into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees — swinging about 5 degrees above mid-October norms.
Passing clouds wil not get in the way of sunshine on Thursday and Friday. The consistent weather continues with highs in the lower to (maybe) mid 70s.
On the back side of this giant area of high pressure, we'll see some moisture return to the atmosphere. Dew points will increase from the 30s to the 50s, and I think we'll see a steady increase in cloud cover as a result.
Saturday's skies should be partly sunny. A weak front may push temperatures downward, closer to 70 degrees than 75. Still pleasant, still dry.
I'm seeing mostly cloudy skies (i.e. more clouds than sun) for Sunday and Monday, but temperatures should remain mild in the 70s.
Our next chance for rain is currently modeled in the Monday night to Tuesday night time frame. A period of heavy soaking rain will be possible in that window. But I wouldn't put too much stock in that rain chance — at 7 days away, this forecast is very much subject to evolve as next week approaches.