Sunny, Warm, Not Windy, and Not Humid – A Perfect June Day for NJ
I really can't find a single thing to complain about in Tuesday's forecast for the Garden State.
Here are your weather headlines for Tuesday, June 14, 2016...
Perfect June Weather?
New Jersey will find itself in a perfectly pleasant pocket of the atmosphere on Tuesday, as the pressure gradient loosens and winds lighten considerably. Sunshine should dominate the sky, although scattered clouds will be possible (especially through the middle part of the day). Humidity will stay low, with dew points in the 40s. Winds will be light, with a breeze generally out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
High temperatures are forecast to top out within a few degrees of 80. Surface winds will be light enough and skies will be sunny enough that the sea breeze machine will kick-in today. So, beaches will be a bit cooler than further inland, in the 70s.
There is actually a sizable bubble of hot air building in the southern and western United States. But the heat looks to largely stay away from New Jersey through the weekend. Having said that, a shift to southwesterly winds on Wednesday will accompany a warming trend into the lower to mid 80s. Skies will be partly sunny, and a can't rule out a late-day shower. (Instability appears to be limited, so severe weather and thunderstorms should not be a concern.)
Chance of Rain
The best chance of rain this week will come Thursday and Friday, as a storm system slides through New Jersey. But calling it "the best chance" isn't saying much, as the rain could turn out to be another fizzle.
There's a big discrepancy in the forecast models for the Thursday-Friday time frame. The NAM model paints a very wet solution, dropping 5 inches of rain (!!!) over New Jersey from Thursday evening through early Friday morning. Meanwhile, the GFS model? Bone dry. Ugh.
I'm leaning toward a not-torrential-rain forecast, but I think some periods of wet weather are still to be expected for Thursday and Friday morning. We will hopefully be able to pinpoint timing and totals a bit more later this week.
High temperatures will be limited to the 70s on Thursday, thanks to an on-shore flow. Friday's highs should make it to 80 degrees for inland New Jersey, but the Jersey Shore will be much cooler.
Father's Day Weekend
For now, the weekend forecast looks outstanding - although that's admittedly a low confidence forecast, directly linked to the wet/dry outcome of Thursday/Friday. Our current forecast puts high temperatures around 80 degrees away from the ocean on Saturday and Sunday with mostly sunny skies. If that comes to fruition, it would be a true shining star of a weekend to close out Spring.