As temperatures warm significantly, strong thunderstorms with localized heavy downpours will be possible through Tuesday afternoon.

Well, my Tuesday morning commute (at 2 a.m.) was a sloppy, wet mess. The highest rainfall totals in New Jersey from this early morning shot of heavy rain topped an inch, in places such as Jersey City, Oceanport, and New Brunswick.

For those with more normal hours, you'll contend with wet roads and spotty showers and localized downpours early Tuesday. There are still some big puddles (read: minor flooding) around, so be careful (read: don't be stupid).

Even those isolated showers will depart by mid-morning, leading to a period of dry weather through much of Tuesday. The sun may even poke through the clouds for a time. High temperatures will soar, into the upper 60s to lower 70s. (Some models are suggesting we may hit 75 or 76 degrees in South Jersey!) That's 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early April. It might even feel a bit humid during peak heating.

The combination of the warmth, humidity, and one more atmospheric impulse will lead to a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Notably, the steadfast NAM forecast model downplays the late-day rain potential, so it's not a sure bet. But I believe if storms do form, they will have the potential to become strong or severe. Torrential rain and subsequent flash flooding, gusty winds, and hail will be the primary concerns.

Bottom line... You'd be wise to carry an umbrella and keep an eye on the sky all day Tuesday.

By Tuesday evening, we'll trend toward drier weather and clearing skies. Overnight temperatures will be comfortable, bottoming out close to 50 degrees.

Wednesday's forecast looks pleasant. Sunshine will mix with occasional clouds, as we stay dry throughout the daytime hours. We'll enjoy mild high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s — we might hit 70 degrees in South Jersey for (presumably) the second day in a row.

Our next storm system will drift downstream on Thursday, and so our forecast will take another "wet" turn. Raindrops are expected to begin in the Garden State during the early morning hours of Thursday (around 4 a.m.). As the core of this storm system passes over New Jersey early Thursday afternoon, heavy downpours and severe weather will be possible yet again. Flooding will be possible (if not likely), yet again.

This batch of rain is forecast to end Thursday evening, with skies slowly clearing through early Friday.

And Friday will hopefully be the start of a stretch of dry, seasonable weather that will carry us through the upcoming second weekend of April.

Friday will be breezy, and a brisk wind looks to continue on Saturday as well. High temperatures for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Pleasant all around.

A warming trend takes over for early next week. I'm seeing highs well into the 60s on Monday, probably getting even warmer through midweek.

 

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