Wet Weather on the Way for New Jersey
Periods of steady and possibly heavy rain are expected across the state from Monday night through Tuesday.
Here are your weather headlines for Monday, August 10, 2015...
Rain on the Way
As you probably noticed, we are coming off another very nice weekend, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and abundant sunshine (especially on Sunday). Some changes are on the way as we begin the new workweek - specifically, rain... and potentially, lots of it. As a low-pressure approaches from the west, we'll have approximately four distinct rounds of rain chances - on Monday, Monday night, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
First, as the storm system presses closer to New Jersey this morning, clouds and shower chances will increase during the day from west to east. As of this writing, all rain is over 50 miles away from the western border of New Jersey, but it is creeping closer. We're expecting a few showers in the Garden State throughout today, mostly in the western half of the state (although I wouldn't rule out raindrops anywhere). I use the word "showers" deliberately here - nothing heavy, nothing widespread today.
Tonight, a warm front associated with this low will sweep through New Jersey with some steady (if not heavy) rain. According to my math, across all model statistics, most of the state is expected to end up with 0.75" to 1.75" in the rain gauge by the end of this stretch of wet weather on Wednesday. The majority of that total is likely to fall as steady to heavy rain late Monday night through early morning Tuesday. Any torrential downpour could cause ponding of water on roadways and/or minor flooding of low-lying areas.
So we'll start Tuesday morning with rain, but we'll hopefully get some breaks of sun through the middle of the day. As the sun heats up the humid atmosphere, and as a cold front approaches, we'll have our third overall round of rain Tuesday afternoon. The forecast models do show modest instability building, so I'm thinking scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible here. The Storm Prediction Center has all of New Jersey in a "Marginal Risk" for severe weather on Tuesday given the somewhat elevated chance of gusty winds. But it does notlook like a widespread, extreme wind event.
The grand finale of this stretch of wet weather will come on Wednesday, as wraparound moisture may cause some showers and sprinkles throughout the day. Skies will certainly be clearer and conditions will be drier on Wednesday - we'll just have to dodge some scattered raindrops along the way.
This Week's Temperature Trend
The bottom line regarding temperatures this week: no major forcings upward or downward will keep temperatures will mostly stay in the 80s this week. Normal highs for this time of year are around 84°.
For today, clouds and the threat for showers will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than the weekend. Highs should range between about 78° and 83°.
Tomorrow's rain will also keep temperatures at bay, to an extent... However, any midday breaks of sun will bump thermometers up very quickly. I'm putting highs in the lower 80s for Tuesday, with the admittance that it could be a bit warmer (more sun) or cooler (more rain).
Following this week's stretch of wet weather, temperatures will hang out int the mid 80s through Wednesday and Thursday. As winds switch to southwesterly on Friday, temperatures will bump into the upper 80s temporarily. We could see a few isolated 90-degree readings, but it won't be a widespread or long-lasting heat.
Next Rain Chance?
As high pressure takes control of our weather on Thursday and Friday, we'll enjoy a stretch of dry, warm, and pleasant weather. The quiet weather won't last forever, of course...
It's still 6-7 days away, so confidence is low, but the models are currently hinting at a frontal passage and associated rain event for next weekend. The rain isn't heavy (although it might be steady). The temperature decrease isn't severe (although it will probably be noticeable).
We've had so many picture-perfect weekend days this summer, and the early look at next weekend unfortunately isn't so perfect. (I really hate rainy summer weekend forecasts!) A lot can change between now and then - we'll be watching it.