Winter Storm Watch issued for Wednesday night into Thursday
The snow, sleet, and freezing rain falling across New Jersey this evening will eventually transition to rain on Wednesday. By Wednesday night and Thursday, significant accumulations of snow will enter the forecast.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch, which is in effect from 10 p.m. on Wednesday through Thursday evening. That will likely be upgraded to a Warning for most - if not all - counties as the storm draws closer, and confidence continues to grow. The watch calls for widespread snow totals in the 4-to 8-inch range across New Jersey by Thursday night. That figure matches well with my latest forecast, detailed in the graphic above.
It is truly glorious when the forecast models (and many of my meteorological colleagues) come together with a pretty consistent forecast for a winter storm. Confidence continues to increase that what I would call “significant” snow will fall somewhere in New Jersey Wednesday night into Thursday. The “sweet spot” for this storm is likely to be somewhere in the central part of the state, with a band of at least 6 inches (maybe even 8 or 10 inches). I’m a little concerned about North Jersey missing the heaviest snow bands, so I’m keeping the snow total forecast a bit lower there (for now). I’m more concerned that the cold front that will help drive this winter weather will get “stuck” over South Jersey, and warmer temperatures will keep any precipitation there as rain for a bit longer.
For more details on this week’s messy forecast, check out this morning’s weather blog post.