Your Memorial Day Weekend Forecast – Cool Start, Unsettled Finish
The holiday weekend will feature a mix of cool temperatures, sunshine, a return to warmth, and eventually some showers and thunderstorms.
Lots of New Jerseyans are heading down the shore, opening the pool, and attending parades and ceremonies this weekend, so it’s obviously an incredibly important weather forecast. (No pressure!) Here’s the day-by-day breakdown of what to expect...
If you’re sneaking away early for the holiday weekend, you picked a good day to do it. Yesterday’s wet, cloudy, cool weather has come to an end, and the sun will shine brightly today. We are expecting a stiff breeze today to 20 or 30 mph, but that won’t prevent high temperatures from reaching the mid 70s this afternoon. Normal highs at this point of the year are in the 73°-74° range, so we’ll be right around or just above average today.
The only wrinkle in this otherwise perfectly pleasant day will be a weak cold front, which will push through the state in the late afternoon and evening. This front lacks any significant moisture to bring us any significant rainfall. However, I can’t rule out a light sprinkle or shower in the 5 p.m. to 10 p.m. time frame.
The aforementioned cold front will be totally through the state by the start of Saturday. In its wake, we’ll find some chilly temperatures to kick off the Memorial Day Weekend. Lows will dip well into the 40s for almost the entire state on Saturday morning. And I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a few 30s on the temperature map as well.
Despite mostly sunny skies, that cooler air mass will keep high temperatures limited to the upper 60s on Saturday. Don’t get me wrong... I would certainly characterize Saturday as a “nice” day, as it will be feature blue skies and dry weather. However, below-normal temperatures and a stiff breeze might not make for an ideal beach or pool day.
By the way, ocean temperatures right now are around 60° up and down the Jersey Shore.
As Saturday’s high pressure pushes out to our east, winds will shift around to a southwesterly direction, which will initiate a warmup for Sunday. Highs should climb into the mild mid 70s, with a pleasant mix of sun and clouds. Sunday will probably be the grand prize weather winner of the holiday weekend, and again we should stay dry through the daytime hours. (I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a shower late Sunday night.)
A warm front is expected to move into New Jersey just in time for Memorial Day Monday, and unfortunately that may make for an unsettled finish to the weekend. By unsettled, I mean the chance (not a sure bet) of showers and thunderstorms. The spread and intensity of that rainfall is still a bit up in the air - all week, models have flip-flopped between a “washout” and a “scattered” forecast. At the moment, I’m leaning toward the latter solution, which would put isolated “hit or miss” blobs of rain over New Jersey through the day Monday. Of course, that would also put some “hit or miss” sunshine in the skies over New Jersey... potentially good news for all the Memorial Day parades and ceremonies on Monday.
Meanwhile, temperatures will continue warming on Monday, with highs reaching either side of the 80° mark. Along with the increase in temperatures will come an overall increase in humidity too - the end of the holiday weekend will feel much more like summer than the beginning.
The warming trend looks to continue through the middle of next week. Some forecasts show part of New Jersey to push close to 90°! The unsettled weather continues as well, with marginal storm chances for both Tuesday and Wednesday.