Snow is knocking on New Jersey's door now, which will turn this Wednesday into a wintry day across New Jersey. And once again, this winter storm is not going to be a big snowstorm. I can say that confidently, because 1.) it's not going to be "major", and 2.) it's not going to be all snow. However, the messy travel impacts from this storm should not be ignored.

Advisory

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for all 21 counties in New Jersey for Wednesday. An advisory is a formal "heads-up" of potentially hazardous travel conditions due to snow and/or ice. The timing details for each advisory appears below.

Current weather warnings and advisories. Purple=Winter Weather Advisory, Pink=Winter Storm Warning.

Timeline

Snow arrives in the Garden State Wednesday morning, picking up in intensity through Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday late afternoon, warming temperatures above the surface will force a transition from snow to wintry mix (mainly sleet). A bit of freezing rain is possible during this transition period as well. By Wednesday evening, warming temperatures at the surface will allow a changeover to just plain rain. After a soggy Wednesday night, that rain will taper off Thursday morning.

As I said so eloquently on Tuesday... The AM commute will be fine. The PM commute, not so much.

Totals

Based on a subtle northward and westward shift in heavier precipitation and colder temperatures, I have spread my area of 2 to 4 inch snowfall northward and westward to now cover most of New Jersey. The lowest snow totals are still expected along the Jersey Shore, ranging from less than an inch around Cape May County to 1 to 3 inches farther north. A light glaze of ice is possible as well, especially to the north and west where wintry mix will continue through Wednesday evening.

Yes, there are a few other forecasters out there who have created snowfall maps with upward of 5" or 6". And ya know, I can't say they're wrong — sure, there is a chance for some very heavy snow from midday through early afternoon. If we see snowfall rates of 1" an hour — if — I could see a few 5-6" totals verifying. But I do not think it's going to be a widespread thing. Hence the "plus" on my snow forecast.

I believe there are far more mitigating factors that warrant this lower, more conservative forecast. Dry air. Lighter-than-expected snowfall. A wiggle in the storm track. And most of all, the big transition. As we've already seen several times this winter, wintry mix and rain are the ultimate snow forecast killers.

Wednesday's wintry forecast, as of Wednesday morning.

County-by-County

In order to paint a complete picture of how this wintry day will play out, I've broken down the forecast by county. Hopefully this makes it easy to get a sense for our winter storm's timeline and impacts, so you can plan your day accordingly. I just ask that you please please please blur your eyes as you look at these highly-specific times and totals — there is a margin-of-error or fudge factor in every winter storm forecast. In other words, my confidence in the broad overall forecast is reasonably high, but the intimate details are shaky.

Atlantic

—Winter Weather Advisory... 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday
—First Flakes by... 10 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 3 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 5 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 1-3", with the least snow accumulation along the coast

Bergen

—Winter Weather Advisory... Noon Wednesday to 6 a.m. Thursday
—First Flakes by... Noon
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 5 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 9 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4" snow, plus 1/10" ice

Burlington

—Winter Weather Advisory... 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday
—First Flakes by... 10 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 4 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 5 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4" northwest, 1-3" southeast

Camden

—Winter Weather Advisory... 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday
—First Flakes by... 10 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 4 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 5 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4"

Cape May

—Winter Weather Advisory... 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday
—First Flakes by... 8 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 2 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 4 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... up to 1"

Cumberland

—Winter Weather Advisory... 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday
—First Flakes by... 8 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 2 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 4 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 1-3", with the lowest amounts along the Delaware Bay

Essex

—Winter Weather Advisory... Noon Wednesday to 1 a.m. Thursday
—First Flakes by... 11 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 5 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 8 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4" snow, plus 1/10" ice

Gloucester

—Winter Weather Advisory... 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday
—First Flakes by... 10 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 3 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 5 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4"

Hudson

—Winter Weather Advisory... Noon Wednesday to 1 a.m. Thursday
—First Flakes by... Noon
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 5 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 8 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4"

Hunterdon

—Winter Weather Advisory... 10 a.m. Wednesday to 1 a.m. Thursday
—First Flakes by... 10 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 4 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 8 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4" snow, plus 1/10" ice

Mercer

—Winter Weather Advisory... 10 a.m. Wednesday to 1 a.m. Thursday
—First Flakes by... 10 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 4 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 6 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4"

Middlesex

—Winter Weather Advisory... 10 a.m. Wednesday to 1 a.m. Thursday
—First Flakes by... 11 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 4 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 6 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4"

Monmouth

—Winter Weather Advisory... 10 a.m. Wednesday to 1 a.m. Thursday
—First Flakes by... 11 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 4 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 6 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 1-3" coast, 2-4" west of the Parkway

Morris

—Winter Weather Advisory... 10 a.m. Wednesday to 1 a.m. Thursday
—First Flakes by... 11 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 5 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 11 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4" snow, plus 1/4" ice

Ocean

—Winter Weather Advisory... 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday
—First Flakes by... 10 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 4 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 5 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 1-3" for most, 2-4" to the northwest

Passaic

—Winter Weather Advisory... Noon Wednesday to 6 a.m. Thursday
—First Flakes by... Noon
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 5 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 11 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4" snow, plus 1/4" ice

Salem

—Winter Weather Advisory... 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday
—First Flakes by... 8 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 3 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 5 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4" for most, 1-3" along the Delaware Bay

Somerset

—Winter Weather Advisory... 10 a.m. Wednesday to 1 a.m. Thursday
—First Flakes by... 10 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 4 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 6 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4" snow, plus 1/10" ice

Sussex

—Winter Weather Advisory... 10 a.m. Wednesday to 6 a.m. Thursday
—First Flakes by... 11 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 5 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 11 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4" snow, plus 1/4" ice

Union

—Winter Weather Advisory... Noon Wednesday to 1 a.m. Thursday
—First Flakes by... 11 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 4 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 8 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4" snow, plus 1/10" ice

Warren

—Winter Weather Advisory... 10 a.m. Wednesday to 6 a.m. Thursday
—First Flakes by... 10 a.m.
—Transition to Wintry Mix begins... 4 p.m.
—Transition to Rain begins... 11 p.m.
—Total Snowfall... 2-4" snow, plus 1/4" ice

Beyond the Storm

Rain ends Thursday morning. The above-freezing temperatures and the rain will help with the snow/ice melt, but there may still be slushy and slippery spots around New Jersey for the morning commute.

Our weather will turn become partly cloudy and breezy Thursday afternoon. Cooler air will return soon enough, but you might catch a few hours with pleasant temperatures in the 50s.

Friday looks quiet, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 40s, give or take.

Our next storm system arrives this weekend. This one is going to be all rain, from about Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

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