Thursday's big weather story will be an approaching cold front but the weather effects on the Garden State shouldn't be a big deal.

Our weather forecast is chock-full of pleasant fall weather! But the next 24 hours will feature a bump in the road, thanks to an upcoming cold front. Remember a cold front is defined as the leading edge of a cooler, drier air mass.

We're kicking off Thursday morning with temperatures mostly in the 40s. The exceptions are urban areas and the Jersey Shore, where thermometers haven't fallen below the 50s. Patchy dense fog and mostly cloudy skies will dominate our weather through late morning.

HRRR model rainfall forecast as of 1 p.m. Thursday, showing only a smattering of raindrops in far North Jersey. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

The aforementioned cold front will begin diving through the Garden State by Thursday afternoon, from northwest to southeast. As it does, our atmosphere will be just juicy enough to sustain a few spotty showers. Raindrops are most likely in the northern third of the state - most New Jerseyans will likely remain dry Thursday. And even the areas that see rain will likely pick up less than a tenth of an inch total. Best timing for the rain is from 11 a.m. to 5 p.m. Thursday.

High temperatures on Thursday, ahead of the front, will likely reach the lower 70s for most of New Jersey. Areas that experience rain through early afternoon may not warm past the upper 60s.

Thursday evening, behind the front, skies will clear rapidly. And our new air mass will arrive on a brisk northerly wind - sustained at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. As low temperatures dip into the 40s, it may get pretty chilly and even a bit blustery by Friday morning. (By the way, I wouldn't rule out a few overnight lows in the 30s - with the stiff breeze, that's downright cold!)

Winds will decrease by midday Friday, as we maintain sunny skies across New Jersey. Highs on Friday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Thursday, between about 60 and 66 degrees. Again, once the wind dies down, we return to pleasant autumnal weather.

Saturday will start off quite chilly, with the potential for widespread 30s. Gardeners take note of a potential frost, especially for the northern half of the state.

Saturday afternoon temperatures will once top out in the lower to mid 60s, just slightly below normal for mid-October. Sunshine, blue skies, and dry weather will prevail.

Sunday looks a bit warmer, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Again, I believe we'll enjoy mostly sunny skies - although models admittedly suggest thicker cloud cover will be possible.

Temperatures will warm into the 70s on Monday. But another round of rain is showing up in the models for early next week as well, but it's too early for precise details yet. At the very least, no big weather systems will threaten New Jersey for the next week (at least).

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