It’s Only Going to Get Colder, New Jersey
Snow showers are in the forecast, as Arctic air remains in place for at least the next week.
Sorry, snow lovers. A consensus forecast has emerged from the models regarding this weekend's pair of snow chances. And that consensus is a non-snowy one. While it's admittedly a close call, and we could still see light accumulation in part of the state, it's still just "conversational snow" at the most.
Thursday's forecast reads like a typical early December day. I'm confident we'll enjoy some good sunshine, with some extra cloud cover potentially creeping into southern New Jersey. Temperatures will be close to normal for this time of year, in the mid 40s. There will be a bit of a breeze — just enough to keep that cool air moving around.
Just about everyone in New Jersey will freeze Thursday night, with lows ranging from about 22 degrees in the higher elevations of NW NJ to about 32 degrees from the cities to the Shore. Clouds will slowly increase overnight, especially after Midnight.
Thermometers will take another downward step on Friday, generally topping out in the lower 40s. Part of the state will get stuck in the 30s all day — such cold would be typical in the dead of winter, but will be well below normal for December. Skies will be mostly cloudy and winds will be in the "breezy" range (up to about 20 mph), blowing out of the west.
A storm system sliding up the Atlantic seaboard will have minor impacts on New Jersey from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Bands of heavier precipitation will be close to the coast, but models have settled on a "near miss" solution that puts some light snow over the Jersey Shore. The rogue 8-inch totals that have occasionally popped up in model guidance this week? Ain't gonna happen.
Having said that, I think it's still prudent to put a potential inch of snow accumulation on grassy surfaces in southeastern New Jersey — that's Atlantic and Cape May counties. I'll say there's an outside chance of a coating of snow on the ground by Saturday morning from Monmouth to Ocean to Burlington to Cumberland to Salem counties. No travel difficulties are anticipated, and not everyone in the Garden State will see snowflakes this time around.
(Note: My general rule is to not draw a formal snow forecast map when totals will remain below 2 inches. I have not and will not be breaking that rule for this minor snow event.)
Clouds will stick around through Saturday afternoon, as high temperatures once again struggle to reach the lower 40s.
We had been watching a potential clipper system around the Sunday morning timeframe, but that threat seems to have fizzled as well. There could be a few snowflakes flying around through the weekend, especially in North Jersey. But once again, don't expect much if anything from this one.
Even though sunshine resumes on Sunday, it's going to be a cold day with a high temp only around 40 degrees.
As winds become southwesterly on Monday and Tuesday, we'll see a subtle warmup. We might even hit 50 degrees in South Jersey on Tuesday! (Woohoo.)
But sustaining cold will continue to be the big story. Models suggest a frigid day for next Wednesday, with highs only in the lower to mid 30s. Brrrr!