Mikie Sherrill And Jack Ciattarelli Neck And Neck As Election Day Looms

⚖️ Tight race for New Jersey governor: Sherrill leads Ciattarelli 49%–48% heading into Election Day.

👫 Gender gap widens: women back Sherrill, men favor Ciattarelli in near mirror split.

💲 Economy dominates voter concerns, outpacing all other issues by wide margin.

I have long cautioned that polls do not predict election results, but they do show trends.

The trend right now shows we could be in for a long Election Night and if the current numbers hold, we may not know who the next governor is by Wednesday morning.

However, while the trends have shown a close race, there are indicators that it may not be as close as these polls suggest.

One of the biggest advantages Democrats have is in their sheer numbers. While Republicans have been making gains in terms of registrations, Democrats still hold about an 850,000 voter advantage.

In early mail-in voting, they have been pressing that advantage to amass about a 220,000 vote advantage heading into Election Day. That number is only expected to grow as early in-person voting continues until Sunday at 6 p.m.

Should Democrats increase that advantage to 300,000 votes before Election Day, the path to victory for Republican Jack Ciattarelli becomes extremely narrow.

New poll shows Sherrill and Ciattarelli locked in dead heat

With less than a week before Election Day, a new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey shows the New Jersey governor’s race tightening to a razor-thin margin between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli.

The poll of likely voters finds Sherrill leading Ciattarelli 49% to 48%, with just 2% undecided. When those undecided voters are allocated, Sherrill’s support ticks up to 50%, while Ciattarelli remains at 48% — well within the margin of error.

Gender divide deepens in New Jersey governor’s race

According to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, “Heading into Election Day, the gender divide in the gubernatorial election has solidified: men break for Ciattarelli by 16 points, while women break for Sherrill by 18 points.”

The numbers show that Ciattarelli has strengthened his appeal among men, growing his lead by four points since last month. Meanwhile, Sherrill’s support among women surged eight points, solidifying a widening gender gap that could define the final outcome.

Favorability ratings split evenly between rivals

In a sign of how polarized the Garden State has become, both candidates are equally liked — and equally disliked by voters.
Sherrill’s favorability rating stands at 47%, with 47% viewing her unfavorably. Ciattarelli fares almost identically, with 48% favorable and 48% unfavorable.

Governor Phil Murphy’s approval rating remains underwater, with only 34% approving of his job performance and 50% disapproving. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump holds a 45% approval rating in New Jersey, compared to 53% who disapprove.

Among those who approve of Murphy, nearly all (97%) say they’ll vote for Sherrill. Of those who disapprove, 91% back Ciattarelli, suggesting Murphy’s unpopularity continues to shape partisan loyalties.

However, of those who have a neutral view of Murphy, nearly 8-in-10 say they will vote for Sherrill. That tells me that Sherrill's message is resonating more solidly than Ciattarelli's message. That could be a problem.

Economy tops list of voter concerns in New Jersey

When asked what issues matter most, 52% of voters pointed to the economy as the dominant factor in their decision — a clear sign of financial anxiety across the state.
“Threats to democracy” followed at 14%, while 11% cited housing affordability, 5% immigration policy, and 5% healthcare.

The poll underscores a state deeply split — by gender, ideology, and priorities — heading into one of the most competitive New Jersey governor’s races in recent memory.

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