Two days of summerlike temps, then falling into fall this weekend

The Bottom Line

Happy first day of October, New Jersey! Although apparently, Mother Nature thinks it’s August as temperatures and humidity levels continue to ramp up to summerlike levels. A few sprinkles are possible early Thursday, before clouds eventually give way to partial sunshine. High temperatures will flirt with 80 degrees. We will easily top out in the 80s on Friday, possibly coming close to record highs. As a cold front nears, a line of showers and thunderstorms may interrupt outdoor plans in the late afternoon to evening time frame Friday. On Saturday, clouds and showers may linger early on in South Jersey, while sunshine breaks out for most of the state. We will cool down by about 15 degrees, feeling much more autumnal for the first weekend of October. While Sunday will start OK, rain showers may return by the afternoon, especially to the south and east. Next week trends cool too, with highs in the 60s and morning lows potentially in the 30s and 40s. The northwest corner of the state could be less than a week away from its first isolated frost of the season.

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Weather Hazards

A Moderate risk of rip currents and rough surf is posted for the Jersey Shore Thursday. That is especially dangerous if you opt for a rare October beach day, as lifeguards are long gone for the season.

The risk of a thunderstorm has gone up for Friday late afternoon to early evening. Severe weather seems unlikely, but any chance of lightning or a localized downpour is worth highlighting.

Climatological Context

October 1 is the 274th day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 71 to 73 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 52 to 55 degrees.

October is, on average, New Jersey’s sixth warmest, sixth wettest, and seventh snowiest month of the year.

Thursday

Happy first day of October!

Despite what the calendar says, Mother Nature is giving us a taste of summertime weather. Temperatures and humidity will continue nudging upward Thursday, as we run well above normal for this time of year.

Morning temperatures are mainly in the 60s. No jacket necessary, for sure.

A weak disturbance is dragging quite a bit of cloud cover through the state. And some quick sprinkles are possible Thursday morning too, especially to the north. Nothing big, and certainly not enough to ruin the day or interrupt the warmup.

The clouds should eventually give way to partial sunshine by the afternoon, allowing high temperatures to reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Nice and warm.

Thursday night stays mild under mainly clear skies, with lows only dipping into the mid 60s.

Friday

Friday will be the warmest day of the week, possibly flirting with record highs. However, it will also be the grand finale of the summer-ish warmth.

It will be partly sunny, breezy, and fairly humid. Look for highs solidly in the lower to mid 80s. I would not completely rule out somewhere in the state flirting with 90 degrees.

A cold front will approach New Jersey late Friday, bringing a line of showers and possibly thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. That timing could interfere with outdoor plans, the evening commute, and Friday night activities.

Severe weather does not look like a significant concern at this point. Still, any thunderstorm can produce lightning and a localized downpour, so Friday’s radar will be worth watching from about 4 p.m. onward.

Once that front passes, fall air returns just in time for the first weekend of fall.

Saturday

Saturday will feel very different.

Temperatures drop by roughly 15 degrees compared to Friday, with highs around 70 degrees. That is much more seasonable for early October.

One wrinkle: Pesky clouds and lingering showers are possible Saturday morning across South Jersey. Farther north, and eventually for most of the state, sunshine should win out.

Saturday reads like a classic, crisp early autumn day. Still quite pleasant, just in a different way than Thursday and Friday.

Sunday & Beyond

Sunday’s forecast is cooler and a little more iffy.

The day should begin with a mix of sun and clouds and generally dry conditions. But showers may creep back into the forecast during the afternoon, especially across southern and eastern New Jersey. Forecast models are all over the place regarding just how far that rain will spread and how steady it will be.

High temperatures on Sunday will only reach the middle 60s, continuing the autumnal cooldown.

Beyond the weekend, we will enter some legitimately cool fall air next week. High temperatures in the 60s. Overnight lows mainly in the 40s, with some 30s becoming possible across northwestern New Jersey.

That means the first isolated frost of the season may be less than a week away for the coldest corners of the state. That would be right on schedule — North Jersey often sees its first frost around this point in October, while much of the rest of New Jersey typically waits until closer to Halloween.

So enjoy the brief return of shorts weather Thursday and Friday. We might be breaking out the jackets and hoodies on a regular basis starting next week.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.