Steamy Humidity and Showers Exit NJ, Still Very Warm Tuesday
On Monday, I used the words steamy, tropical, and yuck to describe the conditions overnight. You'll notice why immediately as you walk out the door — humidity is high, and temperatures really aren't cool or refreshing (in the mid 70s).
We also had a few fierce thunderstorms roll through northern and western New Jersey Monday night. There were reports of trees and power lines down around Morris, Warren, and Hunterdon counties.
The good news in Tuesday's forecast is that things will get much more comfortable by the afternoon. As of this writing, there are a few showers moving through South Jersey. Those should exit completely by about 10 a.m. There will be a bit of a lag between final raindrops and falling humidity, but our air should dry out dramatically by mid-afternoon Tuesday.
Solid breaks of sunshine are expected Tuesday as well. Even though the high humidity goes away, it's still going to be very warm. Most of the state looks to reach the mid to upper 80s. A few spots will probably hit 90+ degrees, making it our first "official" heat wave of the year. (But again, only in a few places.) The coast should end up a few degrees color, especially on barrier islands.
So tonight will be far less tropical, but I think you'll still encounter a hint of mugginess in the air (especially around southern NJ). Lows will fall into the seasonable mid 60s, under mostly clear skies.
Wednesday doesn't look half bad, although skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. High temps come down a bit more, reading the lower 80s by Wednesday afternoon. (70s at the Jersey Shore.)
Our next storm system is set to arrive Wednesday evening through Wednesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the state in that time frame. The latest model guidance suggests first raindrops will hold off until about 8 p.m. Wednesday, meaning there's a chance evening events (such as graduation ceremonies) will stay dry. It remains a precarious forecast, however.
As that rain exits, a return to pleasant weather is expected for Thursday and Friday. A perfect way to kick off Summer, which officially begins early Thursday morning. Our weather and air stays dry over the course of both days. There should be more sun than clouds, allowing the sea breeze machine to fire up. Look for inland highs in the lower 80s, with coastal highs in the 70s.
The forecast gets really muddy for the weekend, as models continue to flip-flop between wet and dry, warm and hot. At the moment, the GFS model shows showers creeping into western NJ late-day Saturday. But the Euro is much wetter, keeping rain over New Jersey throughout the day. There is good consensus toward Sunday becoming the drier and hotter day of the weekend. But let's hold off on specifics for another day or two.