Two big weather stories for NJ Wednesday: Thunderstorms then heat

The Bottom Line

Wednesday's forecast really reads like a typical summer day. 60s with thunderstorms in the morning. 80s with sunshine and humidity in the afternoon. From windshield wipers to air conditioners.

Once again, this surge of warm air will be short-lived. We enter a cooling trend through the rest of the week. Along with a trend toward wetter weather.

The outlook for the Mother's Day Weekend is forming up, and it is a mixed bag. Saturday looks mainly dry. Sunday will bring some showers.

Wednesday

Stormy weather incoming! A line of showers and pretty potent thunderstorms has been charging across Pennsylvania early Wednesday morning. And as of this writing (6:30 a.m.), we are just starting to see the leading edge of rain cross into western New Jersey.

For the most part, there are no big concerns here. There is a broad area of heavy rain and noisy frequent lightning that will push across the middle of New Jersey Wednesday morning, with lighter stuff to the north and south. So everyone in the state will probably get wet at some point. It will be brief.

By 11 a.m. or Noon, rain should exit the coast. And then skies will quickly clear to sunshine through Wednesday afternoon.

The afternoon hours will turn breezy, humid, and very warm. Very summerlike. Look for high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s across most of the state. The immediate coast will end up cooler, closer to 70 degrees.

I do not think we will face a late-day popup thunderstorm threat.

Wednesday night stays quiet and dry, although clouds will start to increase again. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall to around 60 degrees.

Thursday

Thursday will be a very different weather day, as temperatures cool and skies turn much grayer.

Starting around mid-morning Thursday, pockets of rain will arrive in New Jersey. And they will be with us through most of the daytime hours, likely exiting around early evening.

For the most part cooler temperatures (in the 60s) and lower humidity will limit storm strength. So most New Jerseyans should just expect periods of plain rain. Nothing dramatic.

To the southwest, there is a chance that temperatures spike into the 70s Thursday. And that raises severe weather concerns — gusty winds, downpours, maybe even an isolated tornado. Just something to watch as this unsettled, stormy day goes forth.

Friday

Friday does not look like a nice weather day. It will be cloudier and cooler, with temperatures probably stuck in the 50s all day. Plus, spotty showers and drizzle will make for a damp, misty, clammy kind of day.

Saturday

I am keeping an optimistic forecast for Saturday. Meaning, a dry one.

With a mix of sun and clouds and a generally northerly breeze, high temperatures on Saturday will end up around 60 degrees. That is decidedly below our normal high of 70 degrees. It will probably feel more like a typical early April day.

But not terrible. The chance of an isolated shower on Saturday is not zero, but it's low.

Sunday (Mother's Day)

Sunday is Mother's Day. And apologies to all the moms of New Jersey, but your special day is going to be partially wet this time around.

Latest model guidance puts showers over New Jersey Sunday morning, with gradual clearing into the afternoon. It's not going to rain hard. And it's not going to rain all day.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy though. And high temperatures will hopefully hit about 60 degrees. (Some models admittedly trend cooler again.)

The Extended Forecast

Next week's weather looks decidedly more "settled" than this week's. Monday looks mostly sunny, with seasonable high temperatures back around 70 degrees. And approaching the midpoint of May, most of next week will probably end up in the 70s.