What Will New Jersey’s Economy Look Like 30 Years From Now?
New Jersey’s economic growth will lag the nation for quite a while, but a full rebound from the recession is coming soon, according to a brand new economic forecast.
In the report released Friday by the Rutgers Economic Advisory Service, national and statewide statistics were used to gauge New Jersey’s economy in the few years ahead, over the next decade, and 30 years down the road.
Last seen in early 2008, New Jersey’s peak level of 4.09 million jobs will return in mid-2017, the report stated. Annual job increases are expected for the duration of the forecast period, which runs through 2045. In fact, the employment base 30 years from now is expected to grow by nearly 1 million jobs compared to the 2008 peak.
The structure of the economy, however, will change considerably over that time period, said Nancy Mantell, director of the forecast.
“Employment and output in manufacturing and information declines slightly in numbers, but also as a percentage of the total employment,” Mantell predicted. “What is growing and is growing strongly is, particularly, education and health services, and professional and business services.”
The latter have been points of strength through the recession and recovery, and are expected to remain as strong throughout the forecast period, for both New Jersey and the nation.
Through 2025, the report stated, New Jersey’s economy will grow at a slower pace than the country as a whole. After that point, the state’s economy will essentially mimic national performance.
The forecast also called for an average unemployment rate of 5.2 percent between the years 2025 and 2045. New Jersey’s preliminary rate, announced Thursday, fell to 5.7 percent in August.