Why didn’t Christie get a Bump in the Latest Presidential Poll?
Most political pundits predicted Gov. Chris Christie would get a bump in national polls just after he formally launched his presidential campaign on June 30. In fact, the opposite happened, according to a recent poll.
Not all newly announced candidates see their poll numbers rise, but it is fairly standard and conventional wisdom seemed clear that the well-known Christie would see more support, even if only temporarily. So, why didn't Christie get that bump?
On Monday, Monmouth University released the first national poll conducted after Christie's campaign launch. It showed that his support among Republican voters had dropped from 4 percent in June, to 2 percent in the latest survey. The new poll revealed that 25 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of him and 45 percent viewed Christie unfavorably.
"Lots of times you see this post-announcement bump simply because it brings some media attention and some increased familiarity, but I think what we're seeing here is people already know Chris Christie," said Montclair State University Political Science Professor Brigid Harrison. "Many of them loved him about two years ago, but many voters throughout the country have rejected him and in fact have said they would not vote for him for the GOP nomination."
Many Republican voters nationwide already felt that Christie was too moderate to be the party's standard-bearer and they still have not forgiven him for embracing Barack Obama when the president visited New Jersey after Superstorm Sandy, Harrison said.
"I think what the announcement did was it solidified a lot of his negatives and that's exactly what he did not want to happen," Harrison said.
It remains to be seen if Christie's reputation as a moderate will doom his candidacy, according to Seton Hall University Political Science Professor Matt Hale. He also produced another potential reason that the governor did not get the poll bump many predicted.
"I was actually a little surprised that he didn't get some sort of movement, but what it really tells us is that nobody is really paying attention. Most actual voters are really not paying attention and probably won't for a little while," Hale said.
The media and political junkies thought Christie's official campaign launch was a big deal Hale said, but when you reach out to actual voters they may not have even known about it and if they did it might not have resonated with them at all.