Most Accurate Poll In America Calls New Jersey Governor’s Race

New Jersey polling is notoriously inaccurate over the years. That goes for the polling all over America, too.

The Most Accurate Poll In America For The 2024 Presidential Election Was …

AtlasIntel, which is an outlet that is associated with Nate Silver called the “Silver Bulletin” describes AtlasIntel as the most accurate poll of last year’s Presidential election.

More about AtlasIntel polling, after a little more important background.

The 2024 Presidential Election Cycle …

Featured some of the worst polling data, ever … such as the last poll taken (between Trump versus Harris) in Iowa by the Des Moines Register.

This bogus poll, taken about 1 week from the November 5, 2024 election. Somehow, it gave Kamala Harris a 3-point lead over President Donald Trump.

Trump went on to win the state just days later by 13.2 percent.

Trump won the state of Iowa by the largest margin since 1972.

The pollster, J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. said that "She (Harris) has clearly leaped into a leading position."

Seltzer announced her retirement from electoral polling, on November 17, 2024.

I Have Called For Polling Reform For The Past 34 Years

We have been forced to endure what I call suppression polling. Take the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election between Governor Phil Murphy and Jack Ciattarelli.

The polls were way off, always showing Ciattarelli trailing badly. This resulted in the Republican National Committee and others not lifting a finger for Ciattarelli in 2021.

Ciattarelli lost in 2021 by a narrow 51.22 percent to 48.0 percent.

Here Is The Final AtlasIntel Poll Of 2025

The result says it will be a nail biter.

• Mikie Sherrill = 50.2 percent.
• Jack Ciattarelli = 49.3 percent.

This race has featured multiple polls showing Ciattarelli and Sherrill alternating with 1 to 2 point leads.

Never has Ciattarelli been this close in the polls, and, he has always over performed on Election Day versus the polls.

The Latest Emerson Poll

Has the race 48 percent to 47 percent.

Democrat Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop Posted Yesterday on X & Facebook …

NJ may actually have an upset election. This is prob the last public poll before Tuesday. In the 2025 update of pollster ratings by Silver Bulletin (which is associated with Nate Silver's team), AtlasIntel received an A+ rating and was ranked #1 in overall pollster quality in the U.S. for the 2024 election cycle, said Fulop.

Conclusion:

The fact the polling data is so close, likely means that Ciattarelli will win the election versus Sherrill on November 4, 2025.

Ciattarelli has run a much better campaign and he has earned the formal endorsement of many Democrats who are supporting him versus Sherrill.

Ciattarelli won on the actual Election Day voting that took place on General Election Day, 2021. Governor Murphy was powered by the pre-election day vote by mail and early, in-person voting.