The Past 44 Years Proves It: The Next Governor of NJ will Be?

I’m a big believer that past is prologue.

If you are a believer … then we already know who the next Governor of New Jersey will be.

Here’s My Working Theory

In the election of 1981, Governor Tom Kean, Sr. defeated future Governor Jim Florio by a mere 1,797 votes out of more than 2 million votes cast (49.46% to 49.38% following a recount.

It remains the closest Gubernatorial election in New Jersey history.

Kean served two terms and Florio followed him as the next Governor of New Jersey.

U.S. Senator Bill Bradley vs. Christie Whitman

Whitman narrowly lost to Bradley for United States Senator by a margin of 50.44% to 47.40% in 1990.

This poised Whitman to be the next Governor of New Jersey.

Whitman Narrowly Defeated Governor Florio

Whitman defeated the incumbent Governor Florio 49.33% to 48.29% in 1993 … in a razor thin result.

Florio lost the two closest elections for Governor in New Jersey history.

Whitman Narrowly Defeats Jim McGreevey

Whitman won the election of 1997 over McGreevey by only 46.87% to 45.82% … the third closest election in New Jersey Gubernatorial history … basically the same margin as Whitman vs. Florio.

McGreevey Wins Governorship in 2001

The failsafe pattern continued in 2001 when McGreevey won the election for Governor.

New Jersey Voters Make You Earn it

If you show New Jersey voters that you can win … they’ll reward you with the biggest electoral prize the state has to offer.

When you lose an excruciating close statewide election, New Jersey will give you the honor the next time.

Florio, Whitman and McGreevey all know this.

The 2025 Winner For Governor of New Jersey Is?

Jack Ciattarelli 

I don’t say this lightly. I back it up. Ciattarelli lost to Governor Phil Murphy in a very close election in 2021 … that was decided by a very close 51.2% to 48% margin.

Governor Murphy became the first Democrat since 1977 to win reelection.

Ciattarelli won on General Election Day … however, he lost the election during early voting and vote by mail ballots.

That won’t happen this time.

I don’t believe in coincidences. All of these close elections for the past 44 years have delivered the same exact result.

If you lose a close statewide election in New Jersey … You win the next time.

I also add to this calculus that the winning candidates have all dedicated themselves to winning and each worked incredibly hard to earn the support of New Jersey voters.

These results did not happen by accident or luck.

General Election Day is on Tuesday, November 4, 2025.

I confidently forecast that Jack Ciattarelli will defeat Mikie Sherrill. It will be a close election.

NOTE: Neither major political party has won 3 straight elections for New Jersey Governor since 1965.

All of the math favors Ciattarelli.