A Few More Showers and Storms, and an Early Look at the Holiday Weekend
New Jersey will continue a stretch of marginally unsettled weather to start July, with rain possible for each of the next several days.
Here are your weather headlines for Wednesday, July 1, 2015...
More Storms Today?
July started off with a bang in New Jersey, with some ferocious thunderstorms that swept intense lightning and incredibly heavy rain through much of the state early this morning. As of this writing, the stormy weather is done, and we're left with some big puddles and some patches of light to moderate rain through mid-morning. Those big puddles may have inundated low-lying roads with poor drainage, so you may find some inconveniences and road closures on your morning commute.
After the rain ends by about 9 o'clock this morning, we'll see some breaks of sun. That, along with a brisk southwest wind, will help temperatures to soar well into the 80s today. (I wouldn't be surprised to see a 90° reading or two in South Jersey today.) Additionally, high humidity will make it pretty steamy this afternoon, so be prepared for an almost-oppressive day.
Meanwhile, the combination of heat, humidity, sunshine, and a weak impulse this afternoon could spawn a few pop-up thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening. These storms should be fairly isolated, but if they get going they'll likely grow to strong or severe limits quickly. The best chance for these storms will be in the northern third of the state, illustrated by the "Marginal Risk" issued by the Storm Prediction Center due to a 5% risk of severe winds.
So, the bottom line for today's forecast... not everyone in New Jersey will see a storm later today. But if you do hear thunder, it would be very smart to head indoors quickly.
Our unsettled week continues, although this morning's models paint a drier and less stormy picture than Tuesday and Wednesday morning. I truly believe Thursday will be mostly dry for New Jersey, although a few showers look to pop up - mainly late in the day, and mainly in South Jersey. High temperatures should be pleasant in the lower 80s, and it looks like we get a bit of a break from the humidity as well.
On Friday, another impulse is expected to ride through New Jersey, meaning another round of scattered showers is expected. Timing for this rain looks to be late afternoon through late evening. If this forecast verifies, it will be an unfortunately wet start to the holiday weekend for many Garden State residents. Not dangerous, nor a washout... but wet weather on a holiday weekend is never fun to deal with.
The Holiday Weekend
For the first time in six years (and the last time until the year 2020), the 4th of July falls on a Saturday this year! All things considered - especially given the wet and unsettled weather we've seen all week - your holiday weekend forecast looks pretty good.
Having said that, this weekend's forecast is a tough call. Yesterday, one model actually painted Saturday as an overcast and wet day. I'm not a fan of that solution... so I'm treating it as an outlier, and going with a more optimistic, less rainy forecast. Unfortunately, I can't rule out a few showers and mostly cloudy skies for at least part of Saturday. The best chance for rain will be the northwest corner of the state. That doesn't mean the Jersey Shore will be immune to rain on Saturday, although we should get some breaks of sun and marginally warm temperatures on the 4th. Highs will top out in the neighborhood of the upper 70s.
Meanwhile, Sunday's forecast looks fantastic, and will almost certainly be the winner of the holiday weekend. Highs between 80° and 85°, abundant sunshine, and dry weather will make for a pleasant, summer-y end to your 4th of July weekend festivities.