Cooler Temperatures Tuesday, Soaking Rain on the Way for NJ
A backdoor cold front will prevent temperatures from climbing above the lower 50s on Tuesday, with a stronger system eyeing the Garden State for later this week.
Here are your weather headlines for Tuesday, November 17, 2015...
Cooler Today, Warmer Tomorrow
Yesterday was such a beautiful sunny day in New Jersey! The warmest temperatures in the state were reported at Cherry Hill and Sicklerville (Camden County), at 71 degrees. I had more than one person try to "order up" more of the same weather for the rest of the fall and winter. Heh, sorry folks, but it ain't gonna happen!
A backdoor cold front has swept through New Jersey, and you probably didn't even notice. Winds have switched around to the east-northeast already this morning. While the breeze won't be that strong today, it will certainly be enough to limit high temperatures to the lower 50s. Part of North Jersey may be stuck in the upper 40s this afternoon. That's significantly cooler than yesterday, and even a few degrees below normal for mid-November.
Skies on this Tuesday will range from mostly sunny to partly sunny, and winds should range from about 10 to 15 mph.
Clouds will continue to increase tonight, leading to mostly cloudy skies and a pretty grey Wednesday overall. As our wind direction shifts to more of a southeasterly flow, humidity will increase dramatically through the day, with dew points popping into the 60s or so. With the increased atmospheric moisture, a few isolated light showers can't be ruled out. High temperatures will be seasonable in the mid to upper 60s.
Wednesday night, Thursday, and Thursday night are looking quite wet for New Jersey. A strong cold front is currently wreaking havoc across the Southern Plains and Rockies, with weather ranging from tornadoes to winter storms. As that swings toward the Northeast U.S. we will have the chance for rain... And remember that humidity? That means the potential is there for persistent steady or heavy rain... Thursday will probably be a washout.
Models have backed off on the rain intensity forecast and rainfall totals today, generally showing a swath of 0.5" across the entire state. I'm going a little bit wetter in my forecast, with a solid inch looking probable for most of the Garden State. The National Weather Service has been promoting areas of 2+ inches - it's possible if there are some heavy downpours, but I'm not ready to go that high just yet.
The heaviest rain looks to fall from midday through the afternoon on Thursday.
I have typed the following sentence several times in the past couple of weeks... Behind the rain will come a front, and behind the front will eventually come cooler air. 'Tis the season for chilly air, and we have plenty on the air here in Jersey...
While Thursday's high temperatures should be in the mid 60s amidst the raindrops, Friday's highs will take a step down, ending up only in the mid 50s. As a brisk northwesterly wind continues to carry in colder air, Saturday will only top out around 50 degrees.
Another, weaker front looks to pass through New Jersey in the early morning hours on Sunday. That will bring us a reinforcing shot of colder air - so Sunday morning could bring subfreezing temperatures. Additionally, while the bulk of this system will pass well north of New Jersey, it could end up dropping a few snowflakes on top of us on Sunday morning. (Nothing major!)
The ultimate result of this week's temperature roller coaster will be the coldest air of the season to close out the weekend. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday look to reach the mid 40s at best.