The Garden State will enjoy mostly mild, mostly quiet weather through the Easter weekend, marred only by a period of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Hmmm... This morning's forecast models took a weird turn. The temperature outlook for Thursday has shifted quite a bit. And we have a revised timeline for our upcoming rain chances on Friday and Monday-Tuesday. I think I have everything figured out, but please continue reading knowing my confidence is lower than usual for what should be a straightforward forecast. (By the way, this is why you need a human meteorologist giving your forecast - an app or web site would never quantify confidence like this.)

Anyway, Thursday's skies will become partly to mostly cloudy by the afternoon hours. It will be another breezy day, with a south-southeast wind up to 20 mph. (The strongest winds will be along the Jersey Shore.) Yes, it will be mild and/or warm: I expect above-normal temperatures across the entire state. However, North Jersey and the coast will end up noticeably cooler for Thursday - possibly as cool as the mid to upper 50s. Most of New Jersey will top out in the 60s. And inland South Jersey looks to reach the 70-degree mark once again.

Some changes are ahead starting Thursday night, with rain showers arriving after midnight. It's all rain, thanks to low temperatures in the lower 50s, and should remain light in intensity.

Our weather for Good Friday looks somewhat unsettled and a bit on the wet side, although I don't expect it to rain all day. As a cold front approaches New Jersey, scattered showers may be in the neighborhood from early morning through about mid-afternoon. With warm temperatures around 70 degrees and rising humidity levels, a few embedded thunderstorms and/or heavier downpours will be possible.

By Friday evening, temperatures will start to take a tumble thanks to a gusty northerly wind. A frost or light freeze is possible by Saturday morning.

The rest of the holiday weekend looks good. Even though Saturday will be cooler than the rest of the week, high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s will be pleasant and near-normal by late March standards. Plus, the day will feature an abundance of sunshine and a nice light wind.

Easter Sunday will remain pleasant and dry, with highs bumping into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Clouds will increase throughout the day, but skies should remain dry during the daytime hours.

We have been tracking a storm system for early next week, carrying a questionable, low confidence timeline forecast. Not much has changed. The GFS model now predicts this storm to impact New Jersey between about 5 a.m. Monday and 2 a.m. Tuesday. The Euro model shows the system over us from around 2 p.m. Monday through 2 p.m. Tuesday. Pockets of heavy rain are possible. And, depending on timing and temperatures, there could be a few snowflakes on the backside of this system. Just a few flakes though - this will be almost exclusively a rain event.

Temperatures behind this system will likely be at or below normal through the middle of next week. Of course, we will keep an eye on the latest forecast for this storm, and update you daily on its evolution.

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