Tuesday’s Forecast: Wet Start, Dry Finish for South Jersey
A coastal storm system will bring a little bit of rain to the Garden State on Tuesday, but it will be far from a drought-busting deluge.
Here are your weather headlines for Tuesday, November 15, 2016...
An Umbrella and Jacket Day
A coastal storm system is giving New Jersey a glancing blow, sending a little bit of much-needed rain our way. Much-needed because more than 70 percent of the state is characterized as "abnormally dry". A little bit because this rain is battling some very dry air on top of New Jersey and an unfavorable storm track, further limiting rainfall totals. So I'm still calling Tuesday's rain "unimpressive," with rainfall totals still expected to stay below a inch.
The steadiest rain of the day will push through central and northern New Jersey early Tuesday morning. Then, scattered pockets of light rain will move from south to north through early afternoon. Models suggest the rain will end by 1 p.m. in South Jersey, by 4 p.m. along the Jersey Shore, and by 7 p.m. in North Jersey (at the absolute latest). We may very well see a bit of sun peeking from behind the clouds Tuesday afternoon.
Meanwhile, skies will be mostly cloudy, we'll experience an occasional stiff breeze up to 20 mph, and thermometers will be on the cool side. Afternoon temperatures will be limited to the lower to mid 50s.
Skies will continue to clear Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, allowing temperatures to dip into the seasonably chilly upper 30s to lower 40s. If the ground isn't too wet or too warm, I wouldn't be surprised to see reports of patchy frost early Wednesday.
A few clouds are possible on Wednesday, alongside sunshine. High temperatures will reach around 60 degrees, making for a pleasant mid-November day.
Wednesday night, a weak front will pass over New Jersey. I could see a sprinkle or shower popping up at frontal passage time, but I believe our fairly dry atmosphere will prevent much more than that.
And then, it's all about high pressure for Thursday and Friday. Beautifully blue, sunny skies will help temperatures reach around 60 degrees for Thursday, bumping into the mid 60s on Friday.
A pool of cold air is building northwest of New Jersey. It's still early to present a confident forecast, but it looks like a big cooldown is headed our way for the second half of the upcoming weekend.
Our current forecast puts the arrival of that cold front around Saturday night. That means Saturday will remain mild, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Front-related precipitation will be mainly rain showers, in the neighborhood of 10 p.m. Saturday through 7 p.m. Sunday. Some mixing with or transition to snow showers will be possible at the tail end of this system's effects, as temperatures drop sharply. That winter weather possibility would likely be limited to far North Jersey.
The biggest result of this front will be a big cooldown and increase in winds for Sunday. Highs will only reach the upper 40s to lower 50s, with possible wind gusts to 40 mph. Monday looks even colder, with max temps only in the mid 40s. Brrrr!