Halloween Weather Forecast a Real Treat for NJ: Dry and Mild
Happy Halloween, New Jersey! I'm dressing up as a Meteorologist this year. It's a great costume because I get to pass on a great forecast for both Halloween day and Halloween night. (Actually, I'm dressing up as a Ghostbuster to match my 3-year-old son Jackson who really wanted to be a ghost this year.)
Temperatures on this Wednesday morning are quite a bit colder than I had anticipated. The vast majority of New Jersey has fallen into the chilly 30s, so you'll have to bundle up a bit to start the day. We'll enjoy plenty of sunshine through the morning hours, with a bit of cloud cover rolling in Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to maybe upper 60s across the state. That's 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late October.
It could be New Jersey's warmest Halloween in about 5 years. It could also be New Jersey's warmest dry Halloween in about 10 years. Nothing spooky or scary about this forecast!
After sunset (around 6 p.m.) Wednesday evening temperatures will fall slowly from the 60s into the 50s. Thermometers will bottom out only in the mid 50s by Thursday morning — not nearly as cool than the past few days. It will be partly cloudy, quiet, and dry overnight.
As we turn the calendar page to November on Thursday, the warmup continues. High temperatures in the lower 70s will be closer to records than normal high temperatures. (Although I don't think we'll see truly "record-breaking" heat.) Skies will become mostly cloudy though, and there could be an isolated shower at some point during the day. (Best chance for raindrops will be in far North Jersey.)
Our next storm system will be a slow-moving frontal complex, which will deliver widespread scattered showers to New Jersey Thursday night.
Friday looks wet. But at least the latest forecast keeps temperatures on the warm side for one more day, in the lower 70s. Scattered light rain will persist throughout Friday morning. Then, following a lull, models suggest a round of heavier rain arrives Friday evening through Saturday morning. When it's not raining, skies will remain cloudy. Expect breezy conditions, with a southerly wind up to about 20 mph.
When the front finally exits the Garden State around late morning Saturday, we'll probably have a fresh inch to inch-and-a-half in rain gauges across NJ. Healthy, but not heavy — while there could be rumbles of thunder, I'm not overly concerned about severe weather or flooding.
The inevitable return of cooler air really kicks in Saturday. However, as I've been advertising, this is not your arctic blast brand of cooldown. Just a return to "near-normal".
As our weather dries out and our sky clears out Saturday afternoon, a brisk northwesterly wind (to 20 mph) will push temperatures downward. Saturday's high temperatures are modeled to reach the lower 60s. Sunday looks sunny but a bit cooler, with highs in the upper 50s. That's pretty close to seasonal normals for early November.
I know it's an odd thing to say with unseasonable warmth in the forecast for the next three days, but this feels like a fall forecast. Not fall weather, a fall forecast. Meaning it's volatile. A little bit of warmth, a little bit of chill, a little bit of wind, a little bit of rain. No snow... yet!