Happy Summer Solstice! Showers to Sunshine for NJ Thursday
6:07 a.m. has come and gone, and so the Summer Solstice has arrived! That means the Earth's northern hemisphere is tilted 23.5 degrees toward the sun, the closest of the year. Furthermore, we'll see over 15 hours of daylight on this longest day of the year.
And we're starting off Summer with... Rain! Blah. While we had a few thunderstorms and areas of moderate to heavy rain overnight, it will just be widely scattered showers through Thursday morning. Most forecast models suggest raindrops will exit by 8 a.m. The short-range HRRR keeps showers and sprinkles over southern New Jersey through as late as Noon.
In any case, we'll enjoy increasing sunshine by midday, making for a pleasant first afternoon of Summer. High temperatures will be seasonable, in the lower 80s for most. The Jersey Shore will end up in the 70s, thanks to a slight sea breeze.
Thursday evening looks problem-free, which is good news for any and all graduation ceremonies across the state. A shower or sprinkle may pop up Thursday night, but not until after Midnight. Overnight low temps should fall into the mid 60s, with just a hint of humidity in the air.
Our weather will go downhill again on Friday, thanks in part to an easterly (on-shore) wind. It will become cloudier and cooler, with highs only reaching the lower to mid 70s. A period of showers is possible. Depending which model you tend to believe, that rain chance ranges from hit-or-miss showers Friday morning, to a period of steady light rain from Friday morning to midday. It's not going to rain everywhere, and it's not going to rain all day. And models currently do not show high instability or precipitable water values — that means the threat for potentially dangerous downpours and thunderstorms is low.
Saturday still looks soggy at times. While I believe everyone in NJ will see rain at some point, it's not going to be a washout. The latest forecast timeline shows a few showers passing through the Garden State Saturday morning, followed by a relative break in the wet weather through midday. Then, a round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms will visit from Saturday afternoon to evening. Saturday's temperature forecast is extremely challenging. We could end up anywhere between the upper 60s (if clouds and rain persist longer than expected) to lower 80s (if sun breaks out midday).
Sunday is still reading as the drier and significantly warmer day of the weekend. Having said that, guidance shows a few widely scattered showers creeping through New Jersey around the afternoon hours. Partly sunny skies will help high temperatures to spike well into the 80s — a couple of 90s will possible in the dry spots.
As high pressure builds in early next week, it looks like we'll get an extended stretch of pleasant, sunny, warm weather for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.