Failing to connect with voters, Ciattarelli trails in NJ governor’s race

❎ Heading into the final stretch, Ciattarelli trails Sherrill for governor
❎ GOP nominee lags on character issues
❎ More independents support Mikie Sherrill

With just over two months to go before voters decide on who will be the next governor of New Jersey, a new poll shows Republican Jack Ciattarelli still failing to connect with voters on key issues.

The Quinnipiac University Poll shows Democrat Mikie Sherrill with an overall 8-point lead, as well as a lead among critical independent voters.

Sherrill was favored by 49% of likely voters surveyed by Quinnipiac, while Ciattarelli was favored by 41%.

"With just under seven weeks to go, the race for the Trenton statehouse leans Sherrill’s way as Ciattarelli lags on three character issues: honesty, empathy and leadership," Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy said.

The survey also found support split by gender: 48% of men are supporting Ciattarelli and 55% of women are backing Sherrill.

Results from the Quinnipiac Poll are in line with other recent polls.

Ciattarelli has questioned the methodology of recent polls that show him trailing Sherrill, and claims his own internal polling has the race as a dead heat.

Key issues in the race for NJ governor

Among all voters who say they are likely to cast a ballot in this race, there was no issue more important than taxes.

Ethics in government was the only other issue that polled in the double digits.

Likely Republican voters also named immigration and crime as top issues.

Likely Democratic voters named health care and inflation as top issues.

It is clear from the numbers that affordability is on the minds of most voters ahead of the November election.

Each candidate has been campaigning on plans to reign in costs, lower property taxes and reduce the cost of electricity.

These are red meat issues for Republicans, especially after eight years of Democrat Phil Murphy driving up costs with record-setting state budgets and an energy policy that has resulted in electric bills doubling this summer.

Yet Ciattarelli has failed to capitalize on the critical energy issue.

The Quinnipiac survey shows more voters believe Sherrill would do a better job handling electricity costs.

Ciattarelli is viewed as being better equipped to handle property taxes.

Key takeaways from the Quinnipiac poll for NJ governor

As I have always cautioned, polls do not predict the outcomes of elections. They do, however, show trends.

And the trends shown in this and other recent polls do not bode well for Ciattarelli.

He continues to trail among women voters (Sherrill 55%) and independent/unaffiliated voters who are critical to Ciattarelli's path to victory.

A majority of independent/unaffiliated voters rank taxes as their top issue, which is one of the few areas in this poll where Ciattarelli does well among all voters. Overall, Ciattarelli is viewed as the better candidate on taxes.

Yet among independent/unaffiliated voters, 45% support Sherrill and 41% back Ciattarelli.

The poll also asked participants which candidate cared about the needs and problems of people like them, had good leadership skills and was honest. Sherrill led in all three categories.

"With just under seven weeks to go, the race for the Trenton statehouse leans Sherrill’s way as Ciattarelli lags on three character issues: honesty, empathy and leadership," Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy said.

Seven weeks is a long time in a political race, and a lot can happen between now and when the first and last votes are cast in this race.

Ciattarelli has been aggressively campaigning all over the state and his appearances have been well attended. But this poll and others show he is still struggling to connect with voters, and he is running out of time.

The Quinnipiac Poll surveyed 1,238 voters from Sept. 11 to Sept. 15 and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.9%.

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