One last blast of summer Friday, two rain chances this weekend for NJ

The Bottom Line

Following one more truly summerlike day and a round of rain, New Jersey’s weather will turn much more fall-like for the first weekend of October. Highs will reach into the 80s on Friday, not quite setting records but getting somewhat uncomfortable as humidity surges too. Watch for a late-day shower or thunderstorm, marking the arrival of cooler, drier air Friday night. Saturday will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler, with a generally bright sky. So still nice, just more seasonable. Sunday could get a little iffy again with afternoon showers possible, especially to the south and coast. And then next week’s forecast looks fantastic, as we begin an extended stretch of dry, sunny, seasonable weather. The only potential issue next week is the first frost of the season for northwestern New Jersey on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, as temperatures may dip into the 30s.

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Weather Hazards

Given the building heat and humidity in the atmosphere, a thunderstorm is possible as Friday’s cold front arrives. Lightning always presents a potential danger, and isolated instances of gusty winds and/or heavy downpours are possible too. Widespread severe weather seems unlikely, though, especially given the near-sunset timing.

No hazardous weather is anticipated this weekend through next week.

Climatological Context

October 2 is the 275th day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 71 to 73 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 52 to 54 degrees.

October is, on average, New Jersey’s sixth warmest, sixth wettest, and seventh snowiest month of the year.

Friday

This week began with a nasty nor'easter, and will end with a truly summerlike day. But Friday will be the grand finale of this week’s warming trend.

If it were July or August, this would be an ideal morning here in New Jersey. Temperatures are starting the day in the upper 60s. Of course, here in early October, this is a solid 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal. There are some pockets of fog around.

Expect some morning sunshine before clouds increase through Friday afternoon. High temperatures will reach the lower to mid 80s. Unusual but not unheard of for this time of year — the record highs for October 2nd in the 90s will not be broken.

Humidity will surge too, making the air feel pretty uncomfortable.

A cold front will then put a definitive end to the warmth. Watch for a line of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm arriving late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Scattered showers will move from northwest to southeast through the evening before fading. The overall timeline is about 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. for everyone in New Jersey to potentially see an hour or two of wet weather.

The rest of Friday night will remain mostly cloudy and progressively less humid, with low temperatures dipping to around 60 degrees.

Saturday

Temperatures drop, autumnal air returns, but things look generally pleasant.

The one hiccup: Clouds and pesky showers may linger in far southern New Jersey Saturday morning.

I think most of the state will see plenty of sunshine, dry air, and dry weather on Saturday.

Temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Friday, with highs settling around 70 degrees. That will put New Jersey right back into seasonable early October territory.

Sunday

Sunday turns a bit iffy. However, we have a chance at salvaging the day for at least part of the state.

Expect mostly cloudy skies, with high temperatures only reaching the mid 60s. Decidedly fall-like.

A storm system will clip New Jersey, potentially pushing in showers Sunday afternoon. The best chance for rain will be across southern and coastal New Jersey. But that is not a guarantee — the farther north and west you are, the better the odds of staying dry.

To be clear, this does not look like a major storm system or an all-day soaking. Worst case scenario, it is a few hours of wet weather — worth keeping in mind for Sunday outdoor plans.

Monday & Beyond

Monday kicks off what should be a fantastic stretch of "classic" October weather.

For most of next week, expect sunshine, dry conditions, and seasonable highs at or just below 70 degrees.

There is one asterisk on that pleasant autumnal forecast: The influx of cool, dry air could allow overnight temperatures to dip into the 30s in northwestern New Jersey Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. That puts the season’s first isolated frost on the table for the coldest corners of the state. (Heads up, farmers and gardeners!)

Next substantial chance of rain might not be until Columbus Day Weekend, if then.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.