Steamy and a Bit Stormy Across NJ Wednesday
Welcome to the one wrinkle in an otherwise fantastic week of weather. A few batches of rain will push through the Garden State on Wednesday and we'll be chewing through some thick humidity in the air, too.
Umbrellas up! I wish I could nail down the timing of Wednesday's showers, but model inconsistency makes me hesitate. It looks like a batch of steady-ish light to moderate rain will impact most of the state from Wednesday morning through early afternoon, before a general lull takes over. One more round of spotty showers and thunderstorms are possible (but not guaranteed) associated with our cold frontal passage Wednesday evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has kept the western edge of New Jersey under a "marginal risk" of severe weather Wednesday — most likely during the day's final round of thunderstorms, and most likely a wind threat. While most rainfall totals will end up less than a quarter-inch all day, I am concerned about localized downpours. If a pocket of heavy rain sits on top of an area where the ground is saturated and rivers, streams, and creeks are still running high from the weekend rain, there could be some flooding issues.
So, while it won't rain all day, skies will remain mostly cloudy. It will be warm and humid. And ridiculously humid, as dew points spike into the 70s by the afternoon hours. High temperatures should reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.
As our cold front and rain departs Wednesday night, skies will clear out pretty quickly. It will remain humid for all but NW NJ overnight, so I don't expect temperatures to fall much below the mid 60s.
As Thursday begins, we'll see a quick return to spectacular sunshine. Humidity will plummet too, making things much more comfortable. It's going to be another warm and breezy day, with high temps shooting into the lower to mid 80s. Pleasant and summerlike! However, the 20 mph northwesterly wind will likely overcome the sea breeze for most of the day, so even the beaches could hit 80 degrees. (Land breeze also increases the probability of flies at the beach.)
As winds shift more northerly on Friday, we'll cool down a few degrees. Under mostly sunny skies, high temps will be right around 80 degrees — perfectly seasonable for mid-June.
Then along comes the Father's Day Weekend, the final weekend of Spring. And, I'm becoming increasing confident that — for first time since April — we'll have a nice weekend!
Although models show an isolated sprinkle around Saturday morning, I'm not buying it and have opted to keep the weekend forecast dry. Saturday's high temperatures will reach into the mid 80s across most of the state, under partly sunny skies. Humidity levels will be manageable. With the sea breeze keeping the Jersey Shore cooler, I suspect Saturday will be a very popular beach day.
Thermometers will really cook on Sunday, with much of inland New Jersey approaching 90 degrees. Again, the closer you are to the ocean, the cooler you'll stay. Models are pushing out mostly cloudy skies — not a huge setback, especially since I think we'll get a few breaks of sunshine along the way.
Heat and humidity will really surge on Monday, leading to what may very well be the hottest day of the year so far. My latest forecast puts high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s along the coast, and lower to mid 90s further inland. Models guidance suggests temperatures as hot as 100 degrees will be possible on Monday. Could be a real scorcher!