Airshow Weather: Humidity, Unsettled Skies Still With NJ

The Bottom Line

Five rounds of strong thunderstorms over 8 days. New Jersey has been stuck in a very active weather pattern lately. But things are beginning to change for the better. I am happy to say there is NO severe weather threat in the forecast — not just for Wednesday, but for the foreseeable future.

The weak cold front that drove in Tuesday night's thunderstorms will stall just southeast of New Jersey. That will 1.) Keep showers and sprinkles in the neighborhood for a couple more days, and 2.) Lock in humidity for a couple more days.

So both Wednesday and Thursday feature a tricky forecast. I was hoping for dry, pleasant weather. But that may or may not be the case for all corners of the state at all times.

The big transition is coming up on Friday. Brighter, drier, more comfortable weather is on the way!

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Wednesday

As of this writing (6:30 a.m.), there are still some leftover thunderstorms exiting New Jersey. Towns along the coast may experience a few minutes of nasty weather and heavy rain, and then it will be over.

Humidity levels on Wednesday will be better than Tuesday. But still moderate to high, with dew points barely sliding backwards into the 60s. Still pretty sticky.

Temperatures are close to 70 degrees Wednesday morning, and we'll aim for 80 to 85 degrees in the afternoon. While fog and low clouds win early on, you should see substantial breaks of sun Wednesday afternoon.

The big question mark for Wednesday is whether any showers or sprinkles pop up throughout the day. The best chances for raindrops will be to the north and along the coast. I do not see anything widespread, heavy, or prolonged. So for most, it will be a decent day.

Wednesday night looks quiet, dry, and fairly muggy. Under scattered clouds, low temperatures will again end up around 70.

Thursday

Even more unsettled and murkier.

Skies turn mostly cloudy to overcast for Thursday. And humidity ramps up again, as dew points surge into the 70s. Pretty tropical.

High temperatures will hold steady in the lower to mid 80s.

Again, I have to include the chance of a midday shower to the forecast. Especially along the eastern edge of the state.

Friday

Friday is our big transition day, as a cold front sweeps out the funk.

Rain chances as that frontal boundary arrives Friday morning actually look relatively low. Latest model guidance suggests a few showers will clip through NW NJ, and that's about it. We will start the day with clouds, but sunshine should emerge through Friday afternoon.

Friday will still be warm too, in the 80s for most. But as dew points drop like a stone, from the 70s to the 50s, it is going to become dramatically more comfortable.

A stiff breeze will help accommodate that drydown, blowing out of the west at 20+ mph.

Saturday

I say it every summer. I don't care what nasty weather comes during the week, as long as the weekends turn out OK. Summer weekends are precious!

Well, here you go. After an active, unsettled weather week, Saturday looks amazing.

Sunny and dry, with low humidity all around. We could see some 50s on thermometers to start the day. And then high temperatures will be limited to the upper 70s to around 80.

Is that too cool for your summer activities? I don't think so — the abundant sunshine should keep the air feeling nice and warm.

Sunday

Sunday will be the warmer day of the weekend. But humidity stays in the basement.

Under mostly sunny skies, highs will push to about 85 to 90 degrees.

The Extended Forecast

Monday turns hot, as high temperatures shoot into the 90s for the first time since late July. Humidity will start increasing as well.

Then there are two potential scenarios for the long-range forecast next week. Option #1 (the GFS model) is a strong cold front delivers thunderstorms and knocks temperatures and humidity way back again on Tuesday. Option #2 (the Euro model) is no front, and instead a sustained heat wave with 90+ degree temperatures for the duration.

I'm not sure which way I'm leaning right now. Let's see how things evolve over the next couple of days.