Annual Hurley Election Crystal Ball: Congress, AC Mayor & More
United States Congressman Jeff Van Drew, Bob Patterson, Amy Kennedy, Brigid Callahan Harrison, Atlantic City Mayor Marty Small, Pam Fields and Hamilton Township’s Richard Cheek.
Tomorrow, Tuesday, July 7, 2020 is the official Primary Election Day in New Jersey.
Previously, Governor Phil Murphy declared that New Jersey will be a mostly Vote by Mail election for this cycle.
This means that people have already been voting for weeks.
Those who are disabled, they may vote at one of the limited number of polling places that will be made available tomorrow.
Also, if you didn’t receive a ballot in the mail, you can go to a polling place and request to vote by a provisional ballot.
Ballots must be postmarked, or, placed in one of the election drop boxes by tomorrow.
Ballots that are post marked by tomorrow and received after July 7, 2020, will count.
Therefore, any close elections may not be decided until days after July 7th.
Most races are uncontested, however, there are a few high stakes races.
The most high-profiled, contested primary is Amy Kennedy versus Brigid Callahan Harrison for the Democratic Nomination for the United States House of Representatives in New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District.
Callahan piled up major endorsements early on.
Kennedy made it a real race when she won the Atlantic City Democratic endorsement and the Atlantic County Democratic Convention.
This gave Kennedy the Column A Regular Democrat ballot placement in the biggest County in District 2.
The other huge win for Kennedy was when Vote by Mail potentate Craig Callaway resisted a major political courtship from Harrison, in favor of going to work for Kennedy.
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy has formally endorsed Kennedy. United States Senator Cory Booker and a number of other prominent Democrats have endorsed Harrison.
Harrison has more County endorsements versus Kennedy.
Callaway revealed on-air this morning on WPG Talk Radio 95.5’s “Hurley in the Morning” that Harrison offered him 3 times more versus what Kennedy would have to pay for his election services.
Callaway chose Kennedy saying, “I don’t like Harrison. Amy Kennedy is a much better person.”
After aggressively trying to contract Callaway’s election consulting services and failing, Harrison has been hyper critical of Callaway during the campaign.
Should Kennedy prevail in Atlantic County by a wide margin, she can carry the District and win the Democratic Nomination.
The race remains competitive in the final hours of the race.
The race for the Republican Nomination for the United States Senate has come down to Rik Mehta and Hirsh Singh.
Mehta has won more County endorsements. Singh has won in Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland and Ocean Counties.
Singh will need a big turnout in the South in order to overcome the sheer numbers advantage in the Northern portion of the state.
The Republican Nomination for The United States House of Representatives will be won by incumbent Congressman Jeff Van Drew, R-2.
It won’t be close, although Bob Patterson has run an aggressive campaign, attacking Van Drew regularly and trying to win as the “real” conservative in the race.
It won’t work. Van Drew is just too popular. Van Drew also won the unconditional endorsement of United States President Donald Trump.
Van Drew never takes anything for granted, but, he’s basically already advanced to the General Election.
The Atlantic City race for the Democratic Nomination for Mayor of Atlantic City is for all intents and purposes, the General Election.
Mayor Marty Small and challenger Pam Fields are the two leading contenders.
Small has waged a highly visible campaign. He has earned just about every high-profile endorsement in the state.
Small has also delivered measurable results by successfully managing a number of crises since he became Mayor.
As of 1:00 p.m. today, there have been 3,861 Democrat ballots turned in from Atlantic City.
Approximately 14,000 Democrat ballots were mailed to Atlantic City voters for the Primary Election. With one day to go, the turnout is approaching 27.6 percent.
Callaway is typically able to corral in the neighborhood of 2,000 votes for the candidate(s) of his choice in Atlantic City elections.
If past is prologue and Callaway performs as indicated, this race could be much closer then expected.
The winner of the Atlantic City Democratic Primary will be the Mayor, because simply put, Democrats outnumber Republican registrations by at least an 8 to 1.
Earlier today on-air, Callaway called the race between Small and Fields, “too close to call.”
Mayor Small has been confident, but, not over confident throughout the campaign. He expects to win. Small doesn’t believe that it will be close.
In Hamilton Township, challenger Richard Cheek is the favorite to win the Republican Nomination versus an incumbent (Committeeman John Kurtz) who lost favor within his own political party.
Cheek is the long-time Member and current Chairman of the local Planning Board.
Cheek won the coveted Column A Regular Republican ballot placement.
I am forecasting that Cheek will win by a wide margin.
The General Election on Tuesday, November 3, 2020 should be highly competitive in Hamilton Township.