We have made it to the halfway mark of November! And it has been quite the chilly month so far. In fact, at the Newark Liberty International Airport weather station, it is the 5th coldest start to November on record (since 1931). With no big warmup in sight, I do not see that trend changing anytime soon.

As we dive into the weekend, New Jersey will be livin' on the edge. Not the Aerosmith song, but rather we'll find ourselves on the northwestern corner of an off-shore storm system. That means we have some changes and some raindrops to talk about.

In fact, on this Friday morning, a few rain showers have been "spit" toward New Jersey's southern coast. Just a smattering of raindrops keeping things damp early on in southern and coastal NJ. By mid-late morning, we'll dry out, with the rest of the day featuring a mix of clouds and sun. (Heavier on the sunshine in North Jersey, more clouds in South Jersey and along the Jersey Shore.)

Temperatures are starting off warmer than the past couple of days. In central and southern New Jersey, thermometers are actually above freezing. From about Mercer-Somerset-Middlesex counties on north, it's still a bit chilly, in the teens and 20s.

High temperatures Friday afternoon should pop to about 50 degrees. Not bad, although still about 5 degrees below-normal for mid-November.

As Friday night descends, a weak cold front will pass through New Jersey. A brisk northerly wind, gusting to 25-30 mph, will push temperatures downward again. We are looking at a widespread freeze by Saturday morning, with low temps between 20 (north) and 30 (south) degrees.

Saturday is definitely going to have a colder feel to it. It will remain breezy and blustery all day. High temperatures will only reach the upper 30s to (maybe) 40 degrees. Not as frigid as the last arctic blast, but not exactly pleasant either.

I'm going with a dry forecast through Saturday afternoon, although I can't completely rule out a stray flurry or sprinkle. (That off-shore junk will still be in the neighborhood, after all.) Otherwise, you'll see partly to mostly sunny skies to cut through the chill.

On Sunday, a strong coastal storm will come close enough to keep persistent showers over the Jersey Shore. It's a precarious forecast though, as any wiggle in the storm's track, strength, or size could spread heavier, steadier rain into the Garden State. As a matter of fact, the NAM model, both at 3km and 12km resolutions, shows exactly that solution. So I have to include a chance of steady rain throughout the state on Sunday. But it's not a guarantee that everyone (or even anyone) gets wet — it's really a coin flip forecast at this point.

I'll just say that I'm glad temperatures will be warm enough to sustain rain, and not snow. Otherwise, this would be an impossible "boom or bust" kind of forecast.

At the very least, Sunday will be mostly cloudy to overcast with highs in the lower to mid 40s.

The chance of rain will continue into Monday, again depending on the exact behavior of that storm system. Otherwise, I think we'll alternate periods of sun and clouds. High temperatures will once again get stuck in the 40s, about 10 degrees below seasonal norms.

Tuesday and Wednesday look fine, with temps near 50 and at least partial sunshine. The next storm system coming down the 'pike looks to arrive late next week.

Have a great weekend! Stay warm, stay dry!

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