Cold Front and T.S. Chris Present No Big Weather Concerns for NJ
As temperatures become very warm (dare I say hot) on Tuesday, we're still keeping Tropical Storm Chris in our peripheral vision.
Since Monday morning, Chris hasn't moved much. As of the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, it's still just a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. Chris will almost certainly become a hurricane at some point Tuesday, as it begins to move (very slowly) toward the northeast. It will be a "fish storm", passing well east of New Jersey on Wednesday. While no weather impacts are expected, rough surf and rip currents will be a big concern along the Jersey Shore for the rest of the week.
In fact, a Moderate Risk of dangerous rip currents has been posted for NJ beaches Tuesday.
Back at home, we've got quite the summer day ahead for Tuesday. High temperatures across most of New Jersey will return to the lower 90s. The barrier islands will probably top out in the upper 70s, with 80s a good bet for mainland beaches. Humidity will bump up a notch too, with dew points in the 60s — a taste of summertime stickiness, perhaps, but not really oppressive. We'll start the day with mostly sunny skies, with some extra clouds filling in the sky by late afternoon Tuesday.
A cold front will start to push into NW NJ around 7 p.m. Tuesday. Honestly, it's going to be weak, our atmosphere isn't that moisture-rich, and the timing is too late (the best lift will be much later than peak heating). Therefore, I'm really not expecting much from this system, and the latest guidance agrees. A few spotty showers Tuesday night. Maybe a thunderstorm, especially in far North Jersey. But don't expect much here — just a smattering of raindrops, at the most.
Wednesday's forecast looks brighter. I'm now calling the day partly sunny, with cooler high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. You might feel a little bit of a northerly breeze through the first half of the day.
The NAM model has stubbornly shown a weak disturbance and a few isolated showers passing through New Jersey Wednesday night. I'm including it in the forecast, just in case.
Early clouds will give way to sunshine again on Thursday. We'll enjoy pleasantly warm high temperatures in the lower 80s (away from the ocean).
Friday looks good too, with partly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures in the mid 80s.
The early look at the weekend appears slightly warmer, more humid, and a bit unsettled. Yes, that means we'll probably see some rain — right now, it looks like scattered showers and thunderstorms from late Saturday to early Sunday. I'm hesitant in reassuring you that the washout potential seems low for now — but we'll have better resolution on rainfall intensity, spread, and timing in the coming days.