Excessive heat warning for NJ — 3 more very hot, stormy days

The Bottom Line

Oof. Weather has been a lot lately. We went from heavy rain Friday into Saturday, to increasing heat over the weekend, to stormy weather on Sunday.

In fact, those thunderstorms were pretty intense, fueled by equally intense heat and humidity. We even had a few suspected microbursts around New Jersey - localized areas of very strong downdraft winds that caused lots of tree damage and even property damage.

Yes, thunderstorms are possible at some point over the next three days. But our big headline this week continues to be the heat.

Remember, I like to put summertime hot weather into three categories. First, typical, seasonably warm days. Second, uncomfortably hot days, where the thermometer shoots above 90. And third, dangerous heat and humidity, with temperatures well in the 90s and a heat index well over 100 degrees.

That third category is your forecast for the first half of this week.

The hottest day will be Tuesday. The stormiest day of the week will be Wednesday. And the nicest day of the week will be Thursday or Friday. Yes, sustained relief is on the way!

Monday

The numbers tell the whole story of this sultry, sweltering day. Morning temps the 70s. Afternoon highs in the mid 90s. (I would not be surprised to see somewhere in NJ hit the triple-digit mark.) The heat index ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) as high as 111 degrees. Dew point up to 75. That is just disgusting.

An Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory once again blanket the state through Wednesday, highlighting the danger of these weather conditions.

You will find some relief at the Jersey Shore, with highs in the 80s. Especially on barrier islands. But humidity will still keep the "sweat factor" very uncomfortable.

We also have to talk about thunderstorms Monday. A few have already popped up early in the morning. In this soupy atmosphere, we certainly have the ingredients for thunderstorms: energy/instability from heat and moisture from the thick humidity. All it needs is a little spark, and the weather could get nasty.

The best chance for thunderstorms will bookend the day, in the early morning and evening hours. In the middle, we will see plenty of blazing sunshine.

Other than the spot storm chance Monday night, from a decaying mesoscale convective system approaching the west, skies will be clear. And it will be uncomfortably muggy, as low temperatures only dip into the mid 70s on average. One of the warmest nights of the entire year.

Tuesday

I am running out of heat wave adjectives here. Tuesday will be very hot. And humid — there are indications that dew points slide down a little bit, but I doubt you will notice in reality.

Highs on Tuesday will reach 95 to 100 degrees away from the coast. Again, heat index well above that mark.

This will be one of the hottest days of all of 2024. You will get sick, possibly suffering from heat exhaustion or heat stroke, if you do not take care of yourself.

Skies will be almost exactly the same: Hazy sunshine, aside from a spot thunderstorm chance.

Tuesday night will be one the warmest nights I have ever forecasted. Lows may not drop below 80 degrees for much of the state.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be the 5th and final day of this heat wave. The 13th of 14 days with 90+ degree temperatures in New Jersey.

Highs will reach the lower to mid 90s on Wednesday, as clouds increase. I have no doubt will reach "warning" or "advisory" level criteria one more day.

Late-day Wednesday, an approaching cold front will likely drive a line of widespread thunderstorms into New Jersey. Right now, the most likely timing of those storms looks to be about 5 p.m. Wednesday to 5 a.m. Thursday. We will refine that window a bit more (and possibly shift it slightly earlier or later) as the forecast continues to firm up.

Given the dynamics and abundant heat/humidity, we will probably be on the lookout for severe weather. Gusty winds are the most likely concern.

Thursday

By daybreak Thursday, storms will be gone. And our new air mass will be moving in.

Yes, Thursday will be cooler. Maybe it is more appropriate to say "not as hot". Because Thursday will still reach the lower to mid 80s. That is seasonably warm, and more than enough to make you sweat. (Especially in direct sunshine, if there's no breeze, etc.)

The big difference on Thursday will be the humidity. Dew points potentially plummet into the 40s by Thursday afternoon. That is deliciously dry air, and a huge difference from our recent stretch of tropical conditions.

The drydown will also zap our thunderstorm chances for a few days too.

Friday & Beyond

Friday looks truly fantastic, from start to finish.

Given the dry air, Friday morning low temperatures could dip to around 60 degrees. A welcome refresh after our recent unrelenting heat wave.

Highs on Friday will reach the lower to mid 80s again. Skies will be bright and sunny. Beaches will benefit from a nice sea breeze.

Saturday and Sunday look good too, although temperatures and humidity levels will creep up. Sunday could get a little sticky, with 90 degrees back in play. But this time around, we should stay far from the "danger zone".

While I could see a few stray showers and thunderstorms coming into play this weekend, I'm leaning toward a dry forecast for now.