Finally a Quiet (But Cold) Weather Day for NJ Thursday
Let's recap the week so far... Monday was wet. Tuesday was wet. Wednesday morning was snowy. And we have another storm system coming for Friday into Saturday. In the middle of all that meteorological activity, we can catch our breath with a quiet weather day Thursday. Quiet, but cold.
As you walk outside on this Thursday morning, you'll notice a definite chill in the air. With a cold air mass sitting right on top of us, combined with clear skies, temperatures have fallen into the upper teens (north) to 20s. With a statewide deep freeze, watch out for black ice — anything wet or slushy after Wednesday's snow melt will have frozen solid overnight.
Sunshine will do little for thermometers Thursday afternoon, as high temps only reach the mid 30s. It will be a dry day, with just a light breeze.
Clouds will increase Thursday night, as low temperatures dip to around the 30-degree mark.
As our next storm system draws closer on Friday, several waves of spotty showers are expected to pass over New Jersey throughout the entire day. My only concern is the timing of the first wave of the day. If precipitation pushes into southwestern New Jersey around 5 or 6 a.m. Friday morning, it may take the form of snowflakes or some freezing drizzle. Only for an hour or two, but worth watching out for.
So Friday will be generally damp and cloudy, with high temperatures moderating a bit. We should see lower to mid 40s in North Jersey, and lower to mid 50s in South Jersey. Temperatures will continue climbing into Friday night.
Saturday will be nice n' warm, with most highs bumping to the mid to upper 50s. (Maybe even 60 degrees to the south.) That's why we're talking about almost exclusively wet weather, and nothing really wintry.
It will be quite wet on Saturday, with periods of rain throughout the day. I'm not calling it a total washout though. Current model guidance suggests the heaviest rain will fall Saturday morning. Total rainfall from Friday to Saturday may top an inch or two.
There could still be a rain or snow shower around early Sunday morning, but it will certainly be the drier day of the weekend. Skies will average partly sunny, with a stiff westerly breeze (10 to 20 mph). High temperatures will come down to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. That's actually a few degrees above normal for mid-December.
Temps will continue to cool into Monday, with highs only around 40. That's a few degrees below normal for mid-December.
And then our attention turns to yet another storm system in the late Monday-Tuesday time frame. Model agreement and forecast resolution isn't that great yet, but I'm seeing a snow/mix to rain kind of event. The Euro model is notably running cold, showing some snow accumulation for central and northern New Jersey. Worth watching, but I can't offer a concrete forecast yet. I like to focus on one storm system at a time — once we get past Saturday's drenching rain, we'll have a better view of any potential mess for Monday-Tuesday.
Enjoy the sunshine, and stay warm!