Hurley: I Have Little Faith In Monmouth University Poll

LATEST MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY POLL SHOWS KENNEDY LEADING INCUMBENT CONGRESSMAN VAN DREW IN NEW JERSEY’S 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Atlantic County Democratic Chairman Michael Suleiman is doing exactly what he should be doing.

A University poll has been released showing his candidate, Amy Kennedy leading United States Congressman, R-2 Jeff Van Drew.

Here are Suleiman’s comments:

“Somewhere in the swamplands of Washington, D.C., Jefferson Van Drew is wishing he took my advice and stood up for the people of South Jersey. Instead, he is on the verge of becoming a one-hit-wonder. I urge my fellow Democrats not to let up in the final stretch, to withstand dark money Republican attacks looking to infiltrate South Jersey with lies and deceit. Amy Kennedy is the person we need representing us in Congress. She'll stand up for all South Jerseyans, not just the constituency of one that Van Drew curtails to,” said Suleiman.

I fully expect that Suleiman would tout this finding on behalf of his candidate, Amy Kennedy, D NJ-2.

What I find very disturbing is that Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray has tweeted the following about Van Drew in an exchange with Trenton Mayor Gusciora Reed.

Reed suggested that the Monmouth University poll should have used more “descriptive language” to describe Van Drew.

Here’s the Troubling exchange:

This a terrible exchange for a so-called unbiased pollster to have with a clearly partisan Democrat.

It is completely inappropriate for Murray to call Van Drew “Numbnuts.”

A good friend has advised me that Murray is referring to what Christie called Reed “Numbnuts” back in 2012.

Here is coverage of this comment back in 2012 as follows:

https://www.nj.com/news/2012/01/calling_opponent_numbnuts_chri.html

Here is the current Monmouth University poll regarding Van Drew v. Kennedy for New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_nj_100520/

During my career, I have not been a fan of The Monmouth University poll under Murray. It seems to always favor the Democrat candidate.

Murray has headed-up this poll since 2005.

I remember back in 2009, I was absolutely convinced that Chris Christie was leading Governor Jon Corzine throughout the campaign.

In Monmouth polling on Wednesday through Friday polling (the week before the election), Christie led Governor Jon Corzine narrowly.

Suddenly, on the weekend before the election, the Monmouth poll had Corzine take the lead by 2 points.

The Monmouth poll, right before voters went to the polls saw a “shift” in the race towards Corzine.

Wrong. Christie defeated Corzine by about 4.6 percentage points. Read a report from the time about this race.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_nj_110209/

Murray also doesn’t poll South Jersey very often that I can recall. Ask Stockton University and their recent past Michael Testa vs. then Democrat incumbent State Senator Bob Andrzejczak

It was a disastrous (Testa v. Andrzejczak) poll, that couldn’t have been more wrong. It showed Andrzejczak with a inaccurate 14 point lead Meanwhile, Testa went on to win by 7 points. This represented a swing of 21 points.

I reference this as an example as to how inaccurate as Southern most Southern New Jersey polling can be.

https://www.capemaycountyherald.com/news/politics_elections/article_9a55244e-f689-11e9-845f-3f0b5ab1e8e0.html

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/testa-slate-wins-in-ld2/

Southern most New Jersey polls are consistently inaccurate.

Here are a few other outcomes that the Monmouth poll projected.

https://www.app.com/story/news/politics/new-jersey/2016/12/06/monmouth-university-poll-clinton-trump/94733190/

Lastly, here’s a fantastical item, whereby Murray disavowed his own poll, describing it as an outlier.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/monmouth-university-poll-showing-biden-plunging-calls-it-an-outlier

The truth is, I like Amy Kennedy.

Th truth also is, I don’t care for the Monmouth University poll.

And, not just this one.