It’s raining, it’s pouring — but drier days are ahead for NJ

The Bottom Line

Another day of grabbing the umbrella. But let's frame Wednesday's rain chances in a positive light. The risk of severe weather is low. The risk of widespread flooding is relatively low. (Although some roadway ponding — big puddles — is a possibility.) This is much-needed rain, given our ongoing drought and wildfire worries. And it is not even going to rain all day.

Wednesday will be wet through the morning, then trend drier. Still pretty dreary overall.

Then our weather brightens up and warms up for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. While each day has a shower/thunderstorm chance plugged in to the forecast, there will be peeks of sun and more dry hours than wet ones.

After we tally up an inch or two of total rainfall, drier air will return to the Garden State on Sunday.

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Wednesday

Wet start, gray finish.

A wide stripe of steady rain is pushing from south to north through New Jersey Wednesday morning. As of this writing (6 a.m.), South Jersey has already tallied an inch of fresh rain. Many in the state will battle wet weather through the morning commute.

As the morning goes on, through about midday, we will trend drier. Steady rain will transition to spotty showers. Having said that, some shower activity will likely linger into the afternoon, especially for areas to the north and east.

Meanwhile, it is going to stay relatively cloudy, breezy, and cool Wednesday. Temperatures are going nowhere on this dreary weather day — only rising about about 60 in the morning, into the lower-mid 60s by the afternoon.

Wednesday night looks pretty dry, although I can't rule out an isolated shower somewhere in NJ. With lots of clouds overhead, low temps only retreat to about the 60-degree mark.

Thursday

Thursday will be brighter and therefore better. But I still have to call our weather "unsettled".

There will be some peeks of sun amongst the cloud cover on Thursday, allowing high temperatures to warm into the 70s. (That will be near 70 for northern and coastal New Jersey, mid 70s for inland areas, and possibly upper 70s for inland South Jersey.)

Outdoor activities should fare OK for most of Thursday. The only snag is the chance for a shower or thunderstorm Thursday afternoon. Any rain should be rather isolated, potentially meaning most of the state stays dry. Just keep an eye on the sky.

Friday

A passing warm front will keep unsettled weather over New Jersey for Friday. It also means the air will turn even warmer and stickier.

Look for highs on Friday reaching about 75 to 80 degrees. Plus, with dew points creeping into the 60s, you may notice higher humidity and an extra "sweat factor" in the air.

Friday's spotty showers and thunderstorms look to affect NJ In the midday to afternoon hours. Again, not a prolonged all-day kind of thing.

Otherwise, expect a mix of clouds and sun throughout the Garden State on Friday.

Saturday

Believe it or not, this will be the penultimate weekend before Memorial Day Weekend. It's a big one, with spring sports season in full swing. And New Jerseyans starting to open their pools and head to the beaches.

Saturday will be a mixed bag. First of all, it is going to be warm and humid. High temperatures are forecast to surge into the lower 80s. Clouds will win the sky, but it is going to feel almost summerlike with those warm temps.

Again, Saturday will not be perfect. One more round of showers and thunderstorms is expected, again through the midday and afternoon hours. And, given the rise in heat, humidity, and instability, this is probably our best shot at strong to severe thunderstorms of the week.

For now, I would not change any outdoor plans for Saturday. Again, it is fair to call it a "mainly dry" day. But that storm potential is worth watching very carefully, as loud booms of thunder, gusty winds, and downpours could have you running for shelter for a bit.

Sunday & Beyond

Early Sunday morning, a strong cold front will sweep out the junk — the heat, the humidity, and the constant threat of rain. The new air mass arriving in New Jersey on Sunday will be surprisingly cool and dry. Which means we will have a "refreshing" second half of the weekend.

It will get pretty windy on Sunday though, with potential gusts exceeding 25 mph. (Remember last Saturday? Same deal.) Under partly sunny skies, high temperatures will come down to around 70 degrees. Some of New Jersey will be stuck in the 60s on Sunday. Not very May-like — that is about 5 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Cooler-than-normal temperatures look to continue through the early part of next week. But at least the active storm track stays away from New Jersey for a while, as we enjoy a stretch of dry and mostly sunny weather. The only problem is that temperatures will be more April-like than May-ish.