The Bottom Line

Beaches were packed, records were broken, and ice pops were licked. Temperatures were quite summer-ish all weekend, pushing into the 90s each day away from the coast.

Monday will be a dramatically different weather day, as temperatures end up about 25 degrees cooler than the weekend.

The week ahead features something for everyone as we progress from cool and pleasant, to hot and humid and stormy, to warm and pleasant, to… complicated, for the Memorial Day Weekend.

Monday

The heat and humidity of the weekend have been zapped from the atmosphere. You’ll notice the difference in the air immediately Monday morning. Temperatures have fallen into the 50s and 60s. Dew points have tumbled into the 40s and 50s.

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This cooler, drier air mass from the northeast will thoroughly suppress those temperatures Monday. We probably hit our calendar day “high” temperature already, early in the morning. Thermometers will be stuck in the lower to mid 60s Monday afternoon. That’s it.

Clouds will probably win the sky, with some pops of sun throughout the day. The chance of a shower clipping southwestern NJ isn’t zero, but the rest of the state will stay rain-free. In fact, this will be the 14th dry day in a row for most of us.

Not that it’s a beach day given the April-ish temps, but a high risk of rip currents and rough surf continues along the Jersey Shore Monday.

Monday night will be dry and seasonably cool, with some cloud cover. Lows will mainly dip into the lower to mid 50s, with some 40s in the usual cool spots.

Tuesday

Not a bad day, but still on the cool side of normal. Highs should make it to the 70 degree mark. Skies will range from mostly to partly cloudy. And that’s it - no rain, wind, or dramatic headlines here.

Wednesday

Two big changes for Wednesday: a big warmup and chance of rain.

Heat and humidity return, on a stiff southwest breeze. Highs will push upward to about 85 to 90 degrees (away from the coast). Skies will be bright, with partly sunny skies in the forecast.

In addition, the early morning warm front could drive some rain showers through New Jersey. There’s a better chance for scattered thunderstorms Wednesday evening, between about 6 p.m. and 10 p.m.

Thursday

Once again, humidity will be zapped from our atmosphere. And yes, Thursday will be a bit cooler than Wednesday, but not dramatically so. I’m calling for highs near 80 degrees. With a light breeze and plenty of sunshine, Thursday has the potential to be a beautiful late May day.

Friday & Memorial Day Weekend

A storm system will arrive on Friday, and could lead to some troublesome, inclement weather as we dive into the big Memorial Day Weekend.

Medium-range models are painting two possible weather pictures for New Jersey:

1.) The Euro shows a batch of rain arriving Friday afternoon, lingering through Saturday morning. We’d dry out in time for the extended weekend, but temperatures would be stuck on the cool side in the 60s.

2.) The GFS stalls that system directly overhead, keeping a chance of rain for New Jersey from Friday midday through Sunday evening. In the midst of rain and clouds, miserable temperatures in the 50s would be possible. Under this scenario, Sunday would be brighter and better than Saturday. And Monday would be problem-free.

It would be just our luck that our spiralling drought concerns end with a rainy, yucky Memorial Day Weekend. I’m not incredibly optimistic, since cool temperatures are present in both forecast solutions here. But I’m also sold on the soggy solution. We’ll continue to nail down the timeline as the week goes on.

NJ's most and least COVID vaccinated towns, by county

New Jersey reported just short of 4 million people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 statewide, heading into the last week of May. So how does that break down across all 21 counties?

And, how can some communities show a vaccination rate of more than 100%, according to state data? Reasons include people who have moved, those who are traveling and not residing at home where the census counted them, students who may select their school residence for vaccination data and people in long-term care (or other facility-based housing) among other reasons, as explained in a footnote on the state COVID dashboard.

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