NJ Thanksgiving weather: When will it rain, and when will it stop?
The Bottom Line
Happy Thanksgiving Eve! We're eyeing one one storm system that will lead to about 18 hours of wet weather across all of New Jersey. Unfortunately, the heaviest and steadiest rain will coincide with Thanksgiving morning. But at least the rest of the holiday weekend looks good.
About 40 in the morning, and mid 50s in the afternoon. We swing from slightly-below to slightly-above normal temperatures Wednesday. There will be lots of clouds overhead, with some peeks of sun along the way.
I do have to add the chance of a rain shower clipping North Jersey in the late afternoon hours. For most of the state, the daytime hours will be dry.
But then everybody in the state will get wet starting Wednesday night, as our next storm system arrives. Scattered showers will push into New Jersey around late evening (around 10 p.m. to Midnight) Rainfall will become steadier by daybreak Thursday (around 4 or 5 a.m.)
I truly hope your turkey is as moist and juicy as our rainy Thanksgiving morning will be. (Haha!)
The timeline for New Jersey's steadiest, heaviest rain will be about 4 a.m. to Noon on Thursday. Hopefully the rain will break apart and taper off to showers Thursday afternoon. But I suspect we'll have raindrops and damp conditions over New Jersey through early evening.
A half-inch of rain seems to be a good bet for most of the state, with locally heavier amounts. (Possibly over an inch if/where it really pours.)
Flooding, lightning, wind, and wintry weather are still not concerns. If you're like me and my kids, you'll be watching the (socially-distanced) Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade Thursday morning. Across the river in Midtown Manhattan, it will be wet. But I don't see why the big balloons wouldn't be able to fly — that's usually a wind-driven decision. It will be breezy, at worst.
Meanwhile, temperatures will be on the mild side, pushing to about 60 degrees across the majority of the state.
We'll keep the mild temperatures, as the sun comes out (at least partially). Highs in the lower 60s will be about 10 degrees above seasonal normals. In other words, nice weather for your Black Friday shopping frenzy.
Saturday & Sunday
The rest of the holiday weekend looks reasonably pleasant too, although cooler. High temperatures will average mid 50s both days. Saturday will probably be a few degrees warmer. Sunday will probably have fewer clouds. Both days are now showing as dry in the latest model guidance.
The Extended Forecast
Our next next storm system in line is set to impact New Jersey on Monday during the daytime hours. Soaking rain and gusty winds (40 mph) seem likely. While there could be snowflakes on the backside of this system on Tuesday, accumulations will be negligible.
Behind that storm system, temperatures swing back to below-normal levels as we barrel through the first week of December.
I wish you a wonderfully warm, fun, healthy, and safe Thanksgiving holiday. Unless next week's storm system warrants special coverage over the holiday weekend, the weather blog will return early Monday morning.