NJ weather: A taste of early fall as cool, dry air takes over

The Bottom Line

Welcome to the cool side of the world, New Jersey! Monday night's cold front drove in one last round of showers and thunderstorms. And since then, temperatures and humidity levels have been dropping sharply as our new air mass arrives.

It is so weird to be talking about cool, dry air in the middle of August. But here we are — the next three days are going to feel like typical late September days. Crisp, very dry, and relatively cool.

Watch your wardrobe carefully, as this is definitely not "shorts and fip-flops" weather.

The "fall feel" will not be permanent though, as temperatures will warm back into the 80s just in time for the last full weekend of August.

Meanwhile, we begin another extended stretch of dry weather. New Jersey's next widespread chance of rain will not come until early next week, at the earliest. Even so, the rest of August looks pretty dry and boring.

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Tuesday

Temperatures will run about 10 degrees below normal for late August. Not complaining — it's going to be a pleasant, refreshing few days. A nice break for air conditioners across the Garden State.

This air mass is not only cool but dry. Chap Stick alert! Especially with the stiff breeze blowing out of the northwest up to 20 mph Tuesday, you may really feel that dryness on your face.

It will be a mostly sunny day. Thermometers will only climb from 60 in the morning to the lower-mid 70s in the afternoon. Zero concern for rain.

It may be a little too cool and breezy for a perfect beach day. (Although perfect for a walk on the sand or the boards!) Ernesto is still in the northern Atlantic, churning things up. Rip current risk comes down to Moderate for Tuesday, wave height estimates decrease to 3 feet, and the coastal flooding threat has subsided too.

For Tuesday night, skies stay clear and the wind calms down. And there will be a little chill in the air. I expect most of New Jersey to dip into the 50s overnight. The coolest corners of the state will probably see some 40s — that qualifies as "jacket weather" for sure.

Wednesday

Almost the exactly same weather situation for Wednesday. With slightly cooler temperatures and a slightly calmer wind.

Despite lots of sunshine, high temps will only reach the lower 70s Wednesday afternoon. The northwest wind may gust above 15 mph at times.

It will be sunny and dry. Another pleasant day — although not summer-ish, at all.

Thursday

Thursday looks really nice. 50s again in the morning. Mid 70s in the afternoon. Expect sunshine with a few clouds, along with a light breeze. Again, no rain and no complaints.

Friday

One subtle but important change for Friday: The wind direction will start to start from northwestly to westerly. So we will start to get more of a warming influence to end the workweek.

Temperatures will respond by reaching for 80 degrees on Friday. Another gorgeous day with mostly sunny skies.

The Weekend & Beyond

The warming trend will carry into the weekend, as high temperatures return to the seasonable lower-mid 80s for both Saturday and Sunday. We will see some clouds around. But I am maintaining a dry forecast, for now.

The GFS forecast model shows a slow-moving storm system in New Jersey's vicinity for the first half of next week — arriving early Monday, and potentially lingering until Wednesday. I am not totally convinced this will be "a thing" here. And if it is, I am not sure it will amount to much.

If the early week storm does not come to fruition, I'm not sure there will be much to talk about through the rest of August. Maybe a brief hit of rain from a frontal boundary late next week — which would be the start of the Labor Day Weekend. Overall, things are looking very quiet.

The same is true for the tropical Atlantic — there are no areas of concern at this time, with just weeks to go until the historical peak of hurricane season.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.