NJ Weather: One More Day of 80s, Watching Weekend Cold Front
The Bottom Line
Wednesday is the 4th day of October. And the 4th day in a row of sunny, dry, warm weather.
I can't believe I've seen and heard people complaining about this stretch of unseasonable warmth. Even after a soggy and cool second half of September.
So I had to go to the statistics. When was the last time we had a stretch of 80s in October? 2021, just two years ago. Also in 2019. And 2018, 2017, and 2016 too. It's really not that unusual — until we get that classic, strong cold front, warm weather lingers.
Speaking of strong cold fronts, we have one plugged into the weekend forecast. Mother Nature is about to flip the switch from "sunny and dry" to "cloudy and wet" to "cool and breezy". I do not see anything dangerous in the forecast, but the timeline is important as these weather changes could impact your weekend outdoor plans.
Same story, different day.
On Tuesday, the Newark Airport weather station actually tied its record high temperature for the date, when it hit 85 degrees. (Last set in 1950.)
Wednesday's temperatures will be very similar to Tuesday's, with widespread lower 80s away from the coast. But record highs are higher for the 4th of October, so I think they're safe. (89 Newark, 86 Trenton, 87 Atlantic City.)
The day begins with 50s and 60s, with a hint of humidity in the air. There are some patches of fog around, with visibility as low as a quarter-mile — that is the benchmark for when you may need to slow down. All fog should lift by 9 or 10 a.m.
Expect mostly sunny skies and zero rain Wednesday, with moderate humidity and a very light breeze. High temperatures will again reach about 80 to 85 degrees. A sea breeze should keep beaches cooler, in the lower 70s or so.
Wednesday night will also be uneventful and very nice. Skies will stay mainly clear, aside from a resurgence of patchy fog. Low temperatures will average mid 50s by Thursday morning.
You may notice some subtle changes on Thursday. But I promise it will still be a pleasant day.
Skies become partly sunny, as a few clouds roll in. And high temperatures will be slightly cooler due to an on-shore breeze, around 75 to 80 degrees.
Still no rain, no appreciable breeze, and manageable humidity levels. Good stuff.
Friday will not be as nice as the rest of the week, as clouds fill in and rain chances increase. However, I do think most of Friday's daytime hours will be salvaged.
Spotty showers may develop during the day Friday, with an even better chance at night. Because of the clouds and potential raindrops, high temperatures will come down a bit more, settling in the mid 70s.
There is one new wrinkle to this late-week storm system setup. And that is the track of Tropical Storm Philippe, which has been floundering in the Atlantic for almost three weeks. We are not going to get hit by a tropical storm again — Philippe is forecast to pass several hundred miles east of New Jersey this weekend. But that tropical moisture could feed into our atmosphere, raising the potential for some steadier rain and/or some downpours. There is no need to raise the alarm for flooding or "dangerous" weather — just something we will have to watch.
Our weather will be iffy on Saturday, especially through the first half of the day. For the third Saturday in a row, rain is in the forecast.
There are still some timing differences regarding our next wet weather setup. That will ultimately be the difference between drying out by 9 a.m. or by 3 p.m. Saturday.
Behind the rain will come a brisk wind, blowing out of the northwest with gusts to 30 mph. That will carry in cooler air, so expect temperatures to tumble late Saturday. Back to jacket weather.
Sunday & Beyond
By Sunday morning, there is a good chance thermometers will be in the 40s across much of the state. And high temperatures Sunday afternoon will only reach about 60 degrees. That is 10 degrees below normal for early October, and definitely a taste of autumn weather. Sunday will be breezy too — almost blustery.
Monday and Tuesday look like pleasant fall days, despite November-ish temperatures in the 60s.
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Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow